Will there be a civil war in the United States before 2030?
148
1.3kṀ59k2030
12%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
"Civil War" means any large scale military action taken by some part of the country against come other part of the country. This could be military vs. civilian, military vs. military, or civilian vs. civilian. Actual violence must be involved, not just threats. "Large scale" means that it takes place in more than one city and each side has the support of a significant fraction of the country. It must be an attempt to conquer territory or people, not just riots.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
If Trump wins, will the U.S. have a civil war by end 2030?
17% chance
Will >30,000 people die in a US civil war before 2043?
17% chance
Will there be a war between the United States and China before 2030?
17% chance
Will any of the following Western countries have a civil war by 2030?
14% chance
Will the US see a violent insurgency before 2030?
Will the United States experience a constitutional crisis before 2030?
83% chance
Will there be a civil war in Nigeria before 2030
59% chance
[Metaculus] Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in America before 2031?
50% chance
The chances of US civil war this year?
5% chance
Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before 2036?
95% chance