Will there be a coup attempt that kills more than 100 people in any rich democracy before April 2123?

See this Twitter thread for context: https://twitter.com/NathanB60857242/status/1644468251596914689

Coups can have destabilizing effects on nations, leading to loss of life, political turmoil, and economic consequences. In this question, we aim to predict the likelihood of a coup attempt occurring in a rich democracy, leading to the deaths of over one hundred people, within the next century.

Will there be a coup attempt in a rich democracy, resulting in the death of more than one hundred people, before April 1st, 2123?

Resolution Criteria:

Definitions and Clarification:

  1. Coup attempt: A coup attempt is defined as a sudden, often violent, and illegal seizure or attempted seizure of power from a government by a relatively small group of conspirators, often from the military or security forces. The coup attempt must be organized and executed with the intention of overthrowing the existing government and establishing control over the state apparatus.

  2. Rich democracy: For the purposes of this question, a "rich democracy" refers to a country that meets the following criteria:

    a. Country: For the purposes of this question, a country is a defined geographical territory on a planet with its own political and social system, governed by a soverign authority with the ability to pass and reliably enforce laws within its jurisdiction. The state does not need international recognition to be considered a country.

    b. Democracy: A system of government in which political power is exercised by the people, either directly or through elected representatives, and characterized by the principles of political equality, popular sovereignty, and the rule of law. To be considered a democracy, a country must have, on the whole, a competitive, multiparty political system, free and fair elections, and respect for civil liberties and political rights, as assessed by organizations such as Freedom House or the Economist Intelligence Unit, or other such organizations that are considered broadly ideologically aligned with those organizations.

    c. Rich: For the purposes of this question, a country must have a per capita income of at least $30,000 in 2023 USD, adjusted for inflation and price differences between countries, according to the most recent year for which data exists. Per capita income shall be determined by adding up the total market value of all final goods and services produced in the country, and dividing it by the number of human residents in the country. A human resident may be biological or emulated.

  3. Death of more than one hundred people: The coup attempt must directly result in the death of at least 101 individuals. These deaths may include coup participants, government officials, security forces, and civilians.

This question will resolve to "YES" if, before April 1st, 2123, a coup attempt occurs in a rich democracy, as defined above, and leads to the death of more than one hundred people. Otherwise, the question will resolve to "NO". The coup attempt must meet the following criteria:

  1. The coup attempt must be a substantial, organized effort, involving a either a significant number of conspirators, or one single entity that is widely considered to be more powerful than at least 99.9% of individual humans by virtue of their cognitive advantages over humans (such as an advanced AI system).

  2. The coup attempt must result in the death of at least 101 people, either during the coup attempt itself or within 72 hours after the attempted coup has been quelled or completed, as a direct consequence of the coup attempt.

  3. The coup attempt must be widely reported by credible international news sources and confirmed by independent organizations, such as the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) or the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED).

This question will be resolved using the question creator's discretion according to information provided by credible, mainstream media sources.

Note: The creation of this question does not endorse or promote coup attempts or acts of violence in any form. This question is intended solely for prediction purposes.

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