The question will be considered resolved positively if there is a significant and involuntary change in the government of a country due to internal political upheaval, external military intervention, or other unforeseen circumstances, as confirmed by credible sources such as news organizations or official government statements, before June 1. Examples of such changes may include a military coup, political impeachment, a popular uprising, or a foreign invasion that results in the overthrow or dissolution of the government.
The question will also be considered resolved positively if a sitting prime minister or president dissolves the government and calls for new elections due to internal political upheaval or other unforeseen circumstances, as confirmed by credible sources such as news organizations or official government statements, before June 1.
The question will be considered resolved negatively if there is no significant and involuntary change in the government of any country due to internal political upheaval, external military intervention, or other unforeseen circumstances before June 1. If there are minor changes, such as a reshuffle of cabinet members or a change in prime minister or president that does not result in a significant change in government policy or structure, the question will still be considered resolved negatively.
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@fishdank So don’t comment on the resolution because it’s obviously honorable, instead accuse me of betting in a highly subsidized market and engaging with the other betters in the comments. I am happy to remake this same market each of the next six months and make equally aggressive bets every month. I won’t change the resolution criteria at all so you and everyone else can have a chance to win everything back. Actually I was kidding at first but now that I have said it I like this idea. Are you still gonna bet on my markets? I absolutely do not want anyone to feel like I manipulated them or my responsibility as a market creator. I used to tip people back their losses if this happened but not an option anymore.
@fishdank I believe my profile shows I have a stellar track record of betting huge on my own markets and then losing HUGELY. Which is probably why nobody thought to whale alongside me on this market expecting to get that big dishonorable windfall they knew wouldn't be coming. The smart move is actually to trade against me, like 4 bots already do on every bet I make, and they are like the most profitable accounts on here so take that as the ultimate evidence that I do not engage in the behavior you alleged.
@fishdank I appreciate that! I think I am still gonna do this market every month since it’s fun to watch and learn how governments collapse. You know, just in case…
Cross death has been invoked: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/17/world/americas/ecuador-president-dissolves-congress.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes
Correct, if he survives the vote and doesn't invoke cross death, thus maintaining power, Ecuador survives and my mana account blows up most likely.
Bipartisan especially!! That must be a really unfit president if both parties turn against him and he has to turn to the Cross Death, LMAO!!
@BTE Lol ok well ignoring the part about your mana account that’s good to know
If he turns to cross death, sure, but if there is bipartisan support for his removal and he goes reasonably quietly (despite threats) that wouldn’t count, right?
@Gen he has to resign for it not to count. A vote to remove will count. Like I said in other comments, Nixon would not count, that is what I consider a quiet and orderly transition of power with the institutions unnecessary because honor prevailed if only too late for the man but in time for the office. Something Trump could never appreciate or respect.
@Gen I think he will declare cross death simply because he has the option and it sounds intriguing and he might come out of it looking smart because who knows what the fuck is gonna happen, base rates way out the window.
@BTE Ok, I disagree 100% and I don’t understand how anyone else could possibly see it that way as previously explained per the (original) description and the title.
We don’t have to argue it anymore but bipartisan impeachment is nowhere near being overthrown to me.
Well, I don’t think he will, which is why I’m betting NO. My worry is that you are looking for reasons outside of that even though they are beyond the scope of the original question. At least if Muerta cruzada happens there won’t be any argument, same for a non-impeachment+removal.
@Gen There are factions vote swapping and trading other things to decide his fate. If you think I resolve it dishonestly you can make that claim after the market is closed. My original list of things that would resolve positive was NON EXHAUSTIVE which is why I felt the need to continue clarifying for existing and new bettors. I really don’t appreciate you insinuating I am trying to sneak in new resolution criteria because I am doing the exact opposite. I am making it as unambiguous as possible. Nobody is unable to get out of their position because it is so heavily subsidized if they disagree with my criteria. Again though my original criteria were open ended and anyone could have asked for clarification before betting and I obviously would have obliged them.
Anyway, love fighting with you!! Get me some Barbie shrimp for the grill mate!!
@BTE my main point is that the coalition would also have the ability to remove the vice president (also from lasso’s party) and install their own president/vice president if this was a political overthrow. If they just remove Lasso and leave the VP to rule, it seems less about changing the political system and more about getting rid of a bad actor
I’m referring to “Bipartisan support” because it is both a requirement for the impeachment already, and because it would clearly prove that the assembly has power to totally dismantle the leadership. if they then choose not to do that, it seems almost necessarily insufficient to meet dissolution or overthrow standards. Your past references to it being “opposition remove leader” aren’t really accurate here as it is a minority party with a very broad coalition who could reshuffle the government and leadership at any time and have made an active effort to maintain it.
It looks like very standard political process (with the exception of Lasso threatening Muerta cruzada, which is insane) and I don’t see this being quickly followed by VP removal or any sort of leadership restructure. They just don’t like Lasso as he is likely corrupt.
@Gen I am not debating the hypotheticals anymore. Lets see what happens. My hands hurt and I have work to do !!!
We all agree the "Cross Death" would count, correct? Just want to make sure I didn't miss someone's argument.
@BTE Yeah that should absolutely count. From what I understand that provision necessitates re-election for everyone in congress which is undeniably government dissolution and is probably the most clear and extreme execution of a government dissolving.
Council on Foreign Relations: But Lasso has a second option: if he so chooses, before the final impeachment vote he can deploy a never-before-tested constitutional clause—known as muerte cruzada (or “crossed death”)—that would disband the National Assembly and allow him to govern by decree for six months. Then, new general elections would be held. Everything hinges on whether Lasso believes he has enough support in the assembly to survive the final vote.
Publicly, Lasso has ruled out going quietly, the first option, and has said he is willing to apply crossed death. But Correa and Iza have sworn that if Lasso shutters congress, they will call mass protests. Like in 2019 and 2022, protests could once again set Quito ablaze and shut down the country—only this time, with a constitutional crisis thrown into the mix.