Bill Maher claims to be certain that the answer is yes, that election deniers are being elected in the midterms now, in 2022, that will enable a coup by Trump on inauguration day 2025.
See https://twitter.com/billmaher/status/1446700866778456066 plus more recent interviews where he makes clear that he's fully serious.
PS: For reference, we're going to say that January 6th, 2021 would've half-counted as a coup attempt, meaning that if something like that happened again, this market would resolve to PROB at 50%. Other than that, I plan to use the related markets below to help adjudicate this in case of ambiguity.
And since that may be a judgment call, I've sold my shares so I won't have a conflict of interest.
Related markets:
Related questions
I suspect that some participants in the Jan 6 insurrection were registered Democrats, Libertarians, and independents. (Democrats you say? Yes - see primary voting patterns in WV and KY).
This is like asking "Will Christians do a coup?" Or "Will Americans do a Coup?" It's silly to assign the acts of a tiny minority to a much larger group.
Related:
https://manifold.markets/FranklinBaldo/which-country-will-have-the-next-co
https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/conditional-on-a-democrat-winning-i
https://manifold.markets/wasabipesto/conditional-on-a-democrat-winning-i-5047057f4ade
https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-there-be-an-attempted-autogolp
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-there-be-a-civil-war-in-the-un
https://manifold.markets/DeanValentine/will-any-weird-country-experience-a
https://manifold.markets/MathieuPutz/will-30000-people-die-in-a-us-civil
https://manifold.markets/MP/will-a-vice-president-with-the-cabi
https://manifold.markets/DeanValentine/will-any-of-the-following-weird-cou-b07b8b698192
https://manifold.markets/dreev/trump-coup-2025-conditional-on-a-de
https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-there-be-a-coup-attempt-that-k
(No way to copy-paste a market grid, so I'm just providing links.)
@L That Trump can deny it with a straight face? I guess that's a pretty low bar! Ok, let's say that something like Jan 6 might count. I would listen to the arguments for and against and do my best to adjudicate it. I don't want to get too bogged down by that question since "ambiguous coup attempt" is a fairly thin slice of the probability pie here. Maybe we could use resolve-to-market in that case, to get the consensus on what fraction of a coup attempt it was?
@dreev I think this is a very tricky question to adjudicate. FWIW in 2020-2021 there was a prediction question on this topic that used https://isthisacoup.com/ as the resolution source. It resolved YES as Jan 6 was considered an attempted coup by the site. But there definitely was disagreement about whether this classification made sense or not.
It's arguably not a super thin slice of the probability pie, given that in recent US history it's the only example that comes close.
Some options you could consider include to resolve PROB based on your own assessment, a poll, or a designated committee.
@L If you polled Americans, what percent would say that it was a coup attempt? Here (https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/jan-hearings-change-public-opinion-ahead-midterms-polls/story?id=91861512) I see 65% consider it an "insurrection," which seems weaker than "coup attempt" due to being more vague.
@LivInTheLookingGlass Let's say that January 6th would've counted as half a coup attempt. So if something like that happened again, this market would resolve to PROB at 50%.
