US Economic Forecasts

Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024?15% chance

#2024 Matt Yglesias Predictions

Will the US "vibecession" continue through all of 2024?50% chance

Will the US Federal Reserve lower interest rates by 4/1/24?NO

#Interest Rates

#Federal reserve

What will Q1 2024 US GDP growth be?

100%99.1%

[1.5:2) percent growth

0.0%

(-100:0) percent growth

0.0%

[0:1) percent growth

0.0%

[1:1.5) percent growth

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Will the US CY 2024 deficit be higher in 2024 than 2023 as a proportion of GDP?36% chance

How will house prices change in the 12 months to December '23? (Positive is growth, negative is fall)-1

#UK economic data

Will food be more expensive in December 2024 than December 2023?87% chance

#2024 Matt Yglesias Predictions

Will September 2024 YoY housing CPI exceed 3%?55% chance

#Housing markets

Will chained PCE inflation increase more than 2% annualized in January 2024?YES

Will September 2024 YoY housing CPI exceed 1%?81% chance

#Housing markets

Will September 2024 YoY housing CPI exceed 2%?74% chance

#2024 US Presidential Election

Will US Household Credit Card Debt Growth from 3Q23 to 4Q2023 exceed $50 billion?NO

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