Will food be more expensive in December 2024 than December 2023?
Basic
31
1.2k
2025
87%
chance

Will resolve based on nominal price indices data from the FAO Food Price Index. See comments for details.

https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

From https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions

Food prices more expensive in December 2024 than December 2023 (60%)

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

Time Sensitive Capsule for the market to compare against Yglesias:

Nominal prices, I assume?

@EvanDaniel Meaning as opposed to inflation-adjusted?

predicts NO

@oh Correct; inflation-adjusted would be the "real" numbers and graph. Noting that the manufacturer's unit value index isn't the same inflation adjustment most people are used to.

@EvanDaniel Okay, sure.

@EvanDaniel If it’s not obvious, I have no idea what I’m talking about. I’ll look into this more later, but for now, I’m leaving until description as is even if it doesn’t make sense or is misleading.

predicts NO

@oh Roughly, if you're using "nominal" prices, you're trying to ask something like "how are changes in food prices contributing to inflation". With "real" prices you're asking something a little more like "is food getting more or less expensive compared to other stuff".

With the weirdness that "inflation" is usually about a single currency, and this is a global metric, and trying to keep inflation numbers same across currency exchange and national borders and so on is... complicated. So, MUV is an inflation index, but don't confuse it with US CPI inflation or something.

As measured how?