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@Bruce54df Please resolve, thanks.

Arbitrate

The market has it at 53% right now, even after Powell's comments. Possible due to a weakening labor market and regional bank stress.

The economy is following the combined mandate of full employment at low inflation. I don’t see why they would do anything unless unemployment starts to go up, or perhaps inflation does. If anything, the next move is more likely to be up than down.

The market implied odds are 83% right now.

CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group

@riverwalk3 How do I bet real money against this?

@voodoo polymarket, kalshi, etc

@Seeker Thanks! I kind of meant with financial instruments but I’ll look into poly market too

@voodoo Fed swap futures

Arbitrated with /DanMan314/when-will-fed-pivot-lower-interest