
2
Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares, by the end of 2025, that the US entered a recession at any point in 2023 or 2024. Resolves NO on 2026-01-01 otherwise.
Sort by:

@peterete Up to you! For what it's worth, Jan 1st 2026 is just under 3 years away. Are you familiar with Manifold's loan system? You get back 2% of your bets per day as a loan - so if you bet on this market, you'll get most of the mana back over about 100 days. This is so that people will still bet on markets that resolve long in the future without their mana being locked up the whole time.
Sort by:
31 YES payouts
Ṁ1,780
Ṁ1,758
Ṁ570
Ṁ166
Ṁ157
Ṁ151
Ṁ148
Ṁ147
Ṁ139
Ṁ115
Ṁ113
Ṁ105
Ṁ73
Ṁ66
Ṁ37
Ṁ28
36 NO payouts
Ṁ1,279
Ṁ923
Ṁ695
Ṁ334
Ṁ286
Ṁ216
Ṁ202
Ṁ132
Ṁ119
Ṁ114
Ṁ80
Ṁ67
Ṁ51
Ṁ45
Ṁ37













