Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024?

closes 2026

69%

chance

ALL

Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares, by the end of 2025, that the US entered a recession at any point in 2023 or 2024. Resolves NO on 2026-01-01 otherwise.

Global Macro

Economics

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peterete

bruh im not gonna wait 6 damm years

Chris Billingtonis predicting NO at 64%

@peterete Up to you! For what it's worth, Jan 1st 2026 is just under 3 years away. Are you familiar with Manifold's loan system? You get back 2% of your bets per day as a loan - so if you bet on this market, you'll get most of the mana back over about 100 days. This is so that people will still bet on markets that resolve long in the future without their mana being locked up the whole time.

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ26/Ṁ100 YES at 69% (cancelled) 🤖

PC bought Ṁ150 YES from 67% to 68%

PC bought Ṁ40 YES from 66% to 67%

Noya bought Ṁ5 YES at 66% 🎁

PC bought Ṁ40 YES from 65% to 66%

PC bought Ṁ40 YES from 64% to 65%

PC bought Ṁ45 YES from 63% to 64%

Amit Amin bought Ṁ4 YES at 63% 🎁

Rowan Evans bought Ṁ10 NO from 64% to 63%

evergreen bought Ṁ10 YES from 63% to 64%

PC bought Ṁ35 YES from 62% to 63%

PC bought Ṁ45 YES from 61% to 62%

Emilio Montejano Mora bought Ṁ10 NO at 61%

AA bought Ṁ50 NO from 63% to 61%

PC bought Ṁ35 YES from 62% to 63%

Trong bought Ṁ2 NO at 62% 🎁

Nick Allen created limit order for Ṁ500 YES at 60%

PC bought Ṁ15 YES at 62%

PC bought Ṁ15 YES from 61% to 62%

PC bought Ṁ15 YES at 61%

PC filled limit order Ṁ17/Ṁ100 YES at 61%

PC filled limit order Ṁ29/Ṁ100 YES at 61% (cancelled)

Chris Billington bought Ṁ100 NO from 64% to 60%

PC filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 YES at 61%

PC bought Ṁ35 YES from 63% to 64%

PC bought Ṁ35 YES from 62% to 63%

PC bought Ṁ45 YES from 61% to 62%

PC bought Ṁ30 YES from 60% to 61%

PC created limit order for Ṁ10 YES at 60%

Chris Billington bought Ṁ100 NO from 62% to 60%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 70% 🤖

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 55% 🤖

PC bought Ṁ25 YES at 62%

PC sold Ṁ24 YES at 62%

PC bought Ṁ30 YES from 61% to 62%

PC created limit order for Ṁ10 YES at 60% (cancelled)

PC bought Ṁ30 YES from 60% to 61%

PC bought Ṁ15 YES at 60%

evergreen sold Ṁ27 YES from 61% to 60%

evergreen bought Ṁ18 YES from 60% to 61%

Joel bought Ṁ10 NO from 61% to 60%

42irrationalist bought Ṁ69 YES at 61% 🎁

evergreen bought Ṁ10 YES from 60% to 61%

JuJumper bought Ṁ15 NO at 60% 🎁

Dan. W. bought Ṁ35 NO from 62% to 60%

fishdank bought Ṁ10 YES from 61% to 62%

C. P bought Ṁ71 YES at 61% 🎁

Alex B. Goode bought Ṁ46 NO at 61% 🎁

Trent Yazzo bought Ṁ65 YES at 61% 🎁

PC filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ10 YES at 61%

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