Will the US enter a recession by the end of 2024?
closes 2026

Resolves YES if the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declares, by the end of 2025, that the US entered a recession at any point in 2023 or 2024. Resolves NO on 2026-01-01 otherwise.

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peterete avatar

bruh im not gonna wait 6 damm years

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonis predicting NO at 64%

@peterete Up to you! For what it's worth, Jan 1st 2026 is just under 3 years away. Are you familiar with Manifold's loan system? You get back 2% of your bets per day as a loan - so if you bet on this market, you'll get most of the mana back over about 100 days. This is so that people will still bet on markets that resolve long in the future without their mana being locked up the whole time.

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