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Manifold Politics
Manifold Politics
Plus
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
24%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
821
Ṁ10k
Lars Doucet
Plus
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
46%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
861
Ṁ21k
Martin Randall
Plus
When will Trump serve time?
62%
Never
Yes
No
Open options
0.1%
2023
Yes
No
Open options
1.5%
2024
Yes
No
Open options
18%
2025
Yes
No
Open options
See 6 more answers
2356
Ṁ21k
Gordan Knott
Will Donald Trump drop out of the presidential election for any reason before Nov 5th ?
5%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
124
Ṁ1k
Jes Wolfe
Plus
Will JD Vance be removed from the Trump ticket before the election?
6%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
415
Ṁ10k
stefanie
Will Trump refuse to debate Harris?
3%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
1364
Ṁ1.5k
DismalScientist
What were the motives of the Trump shooter? [An option resolves YES if it was a contributing factor]
6%
Protect Democracy
Yes
No
Open options
4%
Combat Climate change
Yes
No
Open options
3%
Combating racism
Yes
No
Open options
3%
Socialism/communism
Yes
No
Open options
See 36 more answers
255
Ṁ4k
Joshua
Will Evan Vucci's photograph of Trump pumping his fist be at least a finalist for a Pulitzer?
77%
chance
Trade Yes
Trade No
72
Ṁ1k
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