https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1812251989759418579

Can resolve to multiple answers.

Resolves based on the consensus of credible media reports on whether this factor contributed to the shooter’s firing toward the stage at the July 13th rally. I plan to be cautious in resolving any option given the evolving nature of the investigations.

If there are no active investigations/commissions, the market end date has passed (12/31/2024), and there is not a consensus of credible media reports either way (e.g. no media reports, inconclusive reports, or conflicting reports), I plan to resolve an option to a Keynesian beauty contest (resolves to current %). If I suspect market manipulation to game the Keynesian beauty contest occurred (e.g. spikes right before market close or a whale entering on the opposite side of other traders without explanation), I retain the right to resolve based on what I think the % would be absent the manipulation OR resolve based on an external forecast (e.g. another prediction market such as Metaculus or Polymarket, a poll of Manifold users, or asking a AI forecaster).

If there is an option with an ambiguous meaning that is not clarified by the creator of the option in the comments (or has not already been clarified by me in the comments as of 07/16/24), I will ask the most recent ChatGPT "What would it mean for an assasin to be motivated by [INSERT OPTION]? Please be as concise as possible." I will use this answer to clarify the meaning (potentially asking follow-ups to understand potential edge cases).

I am open to feedback on edits to the criteria within 24 hours after the edit was made. After that, I will be far less likely to alter the criteria based on new requests. This policy should ensure everyone can trade with confidence.