Presidential DebatesIlya Leaves OpenAII/P - RafahWWDC 2024OpenAI - GPT-4oClose RacesTrump VPWEWHFTrump TrialManifest/LessOnlineNBA PlayoffsFederal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)TwitterDrake v LamarTikTok BanLegal WeedColumbia ProtestsBiden-Trump PollsTaylor SwiftOne PieceMusic AI RaceTV PropsACX 2024 Hard Forkasts
OR '24 Election
A small experiment in seeing how well Manifold is able to track real-time public sentiment for various statewide elections in Oregon. Polls out here in the boondocks can have error margins as wide as the Columbia Gorge and prediction markets offer a way for those who don't use landlines to express their opinion. There are several different markets, and I've tried to break them down into respective categories.
Yes, and I currently live in Oregon
Yes, and I currently live outside Oregon
No, I have not traded on those markets
Election Meta
Federal Legislative Elected Officials
84%
Suzanne Bonamici (Democrat) [Incumbent]
17%
Bob Todd (Republican)
9%
Courtney E Casgraux (Democrat)
7%
Jeff D Perkins (Republican)
83%
Cliff Bentz (Republican) [Incumbent]
55%
Jason Beebe (Republican)
50%
Dan Ruby (Democrat)
24%
Steve William Laible (Democrat)
45%
Teresa Orwig (Republican)
45%
Gary L Dye (Republican)
45%
Eddy Morales (Democrat)
41%
Maxine E Dexter (Democrat)
50%
Monique DeSpain (Republican)
50%
Amy L Ryan Courser (Republican)
50%
Val Hoyle (Democrat)
18%
Write-In
34%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Republican) [Incumbent]
34%
Janelle S Bynum (Democrat)
20%
Jamie McLeod-Skinner (Democrat)
1.3%
Write-In
67%
Andrea Salinas (Democrat) [Incumbent]
50%
Conrad J Herold (Republican)
50%
Cody Reynolds (Democrat)
44%
David Russ (Republican)
State Executive Elected Officials
69%
James Manning Jr (Democrat)
57%
Tobias Read (Democrat)
45%
Dennis Linthicum (Republican)
45%
Tim McCloud (Republican)
49%
Jeff Gudman (Democrat)
49%
Elizabeth Steiner (Democrat)
45%
Brian J Boquist (Republican)
5%
Write-In
State Senate Elected Officials
State Representative Elected Officials
State Judiciary
See more questions: