River Bellamy's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.27
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when River Bellamy bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
10%
20%
30%
40%
- If Donald Trump runs for President in 2024, will 7 or more Republican candidates appear in at least one televised Presidential Primary Debate?YESṀ100
- Will there be significant uncertainty about if Trump was arrested or not?NOṀ17
- Will a single shooting incident kill at least 20 people in the US during 2023?NOṀ10
50%
60%
70%
80%
97%