Will Matt Levine link to Manifold by 2024?
resolved Nov 21

Resolves to YES if Manifold Markets is referenced or linked to by Matt Levine in his Money Stuff newsletter, before the end of next year.

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predicted YES

Those interested in this market may also be interested to know that it appears we have @JosephWeisenthal in the building!

predicted YES

if anybody from Bloomberg Engineering is reading this thread, you might want to consider integrating the terminal with Manifold as a good long-term career proposal project

there already is Kalshi integration, so it shouldn't be too hard

predicted YES

@palcu Where would I find Kalshi integration in the terminal?

predicted YES

@palcu Looks like Kalshi is useful in the terminal because it has systematic forecasts of economic data, and I don't believe Manifold has that? Like, to do a thing that is useful for terminal users, Manifold would need a single authoritative market maker, who consistently makes markets to forecast particular economic metrics every day/week/month. I don't see Manifold implementing that any time soon.

predicted YES

@RiverBellamy users with API access can implement that, trading their own mana? Potentially manifold can subsidize some liquidity as well

predicted YES

I have peaked

predicted NO

happy to lose this one!

Very nice!


@Joshua You're a little late on those NO bets

@Gabrielle is this his newsletter? I thought it might just be an opinion piece, which isn't being sent out like his newsletter.

@Joshua It's in his Money Stuff newsletter (source: I get the newsletter, I got this email, the email is headed like his newsletters). It's formatted a bit weirdly on the Bloomberg website, since it's intended to be an email, but it's the same thing.

@Gabrielle Ah, then I concede! Excellent!

He mentioned Manifold https://t.co/m7lg0KS2mF

I don’t have paid access so I can’t confirm whether he links to Manifold in the piece.

Levine's newsletter is essentially an advert for the rest of Bloomberg. And now Joe Weisenthal wrote about prediction markets in his own column. https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1726952107948028008

So it's only a matter of days IMO

Levine has reaponded to my email! And very positively! His response was after the last newsletter was published (timestamp is AET).

IMO market is now way oversold, even adjusting for time decay. We are below August levels. Since then he has recently become aware of Manifold and responded positively (3.75x haha's!). If it's going to be in the newsletter it's now or never.

Redacted his email info as I don't think it is moral to leave his email in a place which he cannot control. You'll just have to 'trust me bro' on that one.

@dezzao IMO we should be back around the ATH ~86%.

bought Ṁ50 YES from 56% to 58%

Wasn’t included in today’s newsletter featuring OpenAI and Altman

Matt Levine linked to the Sam Altman market... on Threads: https://www.threads.net/@itismattlevine/post/CzxG2M9rLkM

(h/t palcu on Discord)

@Austin So this doesn't resolve unless linked to in his newsletter?

predicted YES

@Joshua Or referenced.

predicted YES

@Eliza So if, for example, he says "prediction markets" and it is clear he is referring to this specific one using the extra context of the Threads post, but without saying Manifold, it would possibly count!

Matt Levine as a topic has been created. I will email him so he is aware.

Perhaps letting him know is securities fraud, perhaps not. If only there was some sort of expert that could weigh in on the matter in the form of a newsletter.

time decay