If Donald Trump runs for President in 2024, will 7 or more Republican candidates appear in at least one televised Presidential Primary Debate?
48
295
แน€684
resolved Aug 24
Resolved
YES

Question will be void if Trump is not running as of the first televised presidential debate. If Trump runs but refuses to debate then market will still be live (but he would then not count towards the 7 candidates).

Close date updated to 2024-01-01 11:59 pm

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I don't understand this market. 8 Republicans are set to debate tomorrow night. Do they not count since Trump isn't participating? If Trump never debates, does this resolve NO?

@n1psey If 7 other candidates debate each other on TV tomorrow then this resolves to YES.

bought แน€150 of YES

@ZviMowshowitz so I go all-in on YES, got it. Extremely unlikely that two people will drop out before tomorrow and there won't be another stacked debate

predicted YES

@ZviMowshowitz What did you mean by this: "If Trump runs but refuses to debate then market will still be live"

predicted YES

@n1psey oh I got it it's like, doesn't matter if he debates or not. confusing

@n1psey Yes, I apologize if the wording was confusing. Intent here is that if there is a 7-person debate, with or without Trump, that counts, so unless something very strange happens this resolves to yes (but I will not be betting this one prior to it being ready to resolve).

bought แน€80 of NO
No way. Maybe heโ€™ll get a challenger or two, but definitely not 7. And Trump would probably not want there to be a debate. This scenario is possible, but requires multiple unlikely things.
predicted NO
(โ€œNo wayโ€ in reference to the previous % btw)
bought แน€10 of NO
Buying this down to 35%; my guess is that Trump running would encourage would-be candidates to back him, rather than run against.

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