Will Nonlinear post its response by December 13?

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On October 9, Kat Woods responds to a question about when Nonlinear will respond to the investigation by Ben Pace. She writes that Nonlinear are "aiming to get this done in the next few weeks" but also notes reasons for slowness. Will Nonlinear publish a response within 5 weeks of her remark?

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/32LMQsjEMm6NK2GTH/sharing-information-about-nonlinear?commentId=oSJh4RJvG4Gy4hQ3t

Sharing Information About Nonlinear — EA Forum

Comment by Kat Woods - Have no fear! We are responding. We’ve been working on this full time the entire time. We have over 200 pages written so far and are in the last stages of editing to the point where we’ll be able to get feedback from friends. We’re aiming to get this done in the next few weeks because we want to be working on things that actually help with AI. However, it’s a very large doc, it’s a hostile audience, it takes way more effort to debunk something than to say something, etc. Also, man, I really hate editing, so it’s a bit of a slog. (Obviously didn’t mean to write over 200 pages. Just Ben accused us of a lot of things and we were writing in multiple documents, so didn’t see what had happened until it was too late 😛.)

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<a href="https://playredball4.com/ ">red ball 4</a> I placed a limit order right after witnessing your trade.

predicted NO

Related market:

sold Ṁ47 of NO

Destiny didn't release the melifesto, but the karmic balance must be maintained, so...

And I would have bet a decent amount against the response being this comprehensive and good at a surface level. No idea if it holds up to scrutiny, having no context on this. (To be clear, I don't think the appearance of being comprehensive evidence has any association with actually being correct in this case)

bought Ṁ20 of NO

Nonlinear’s Evidence: Debunking False and Misleading Claims

bought Ṁ25 of NO

I notice that close time is on Dec 15 UTC, but title is about Dec 13. What is the exact time point before nonlinear needs to post the response (timezone? Dec 13 inclusive or exclusive?)?

boughtṀ300YES

@NuñoSempere hmmm

sold Ṁ18 of YES

@firstuserhere I don't understand limit orders here

@NuñoSempere Fair enough, it's a hair-trigger market, could resolve on some news. I'd hesitate to put limit orders here too

predicted YES

@NuñoSempere I think I spooked @Marcus Abramovitch

bought Ṁ60 of YES

@firstuserhere I am happy to trade at 30%

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

@NuñoSempere I literally threw up a limit order AFTER i saw you trade.

predicted NO

@NuñoSempere but yes, this feels like insider information

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@NuñoSempere I threw up another 1k limit order for you

... can we get an end of year market?

predicted NO

@firstuserhere

It's been almost 2 months...

@firstuserhere It's coming up on 3 months since Ben posted

bought Ṁ120 NO from 40% to 30%

bought Ṁ69 of NO

@MarcusAbramovitch yikes, didn't realize its been that long

predicted NO

Nice. I went ahead and made one about EOY as well: https://manifold.markets/Rodeo/will-nonlinear-post-its-response-by-436f7f3c0c6c

predicted NO

@firstuserhere Rodeo has got your back :P

who cares

They are saying 1-4 weeks now (as of yesterday)

@RobertCousineau They said that like a month ago

@MarcusAbramovitch

@RobertCousineau wow that is new. Either way, market is made. I am very curious about this btw.
Before this, I thought quite favorably of the Nonlinear people, Emerson in particular. But the post is, tbh, quite convincing. I also wish they would at least release a partial response (indicating they will post more later).

@MarcusAbramovitch they/I caused my partner listen to 12+ hours of the nonlinear audio transcriptions of LW posts on one road trip. That was pretty useful of them in my opinion!

But yeah - that post was significant.. very curious to see how they respond.