Will Nonlinear post its response by December 13?
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resolved Dec 12
Resolved
YES
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<a href="https://playredball4.com/ ">red ball 4</a> I placed a limit order right after witnessing your trade.

predicted NO

Related market:

Destiny didn't release the melifesto, but the karmic balance must be maintained, so...

And I would have bet a decent amount against the response being this comprehensive and good at a surface level. No idea if it holds up to scrutiny, having no context on this. (To be clear, I don't think the appearance of being comprehensive evidence has any association with actually being correct in this case)

I notice that close time is on Dec 15 UTC, but title is about Dec 13. What is the exact time point before nonlinear needs to post the response (timezone? Dec 13 inclusive or exclusive?)?

Nuño SempereboughtṀ300YES

@firstuserhere I don't understand limit orders here

@NuñoSempere Fair enough, it's a hair-trigger market, could resolve on some news. I'd hesitate to put limit orders here too

predicted YES

@firstuserhere I am happy to trade at 30%

@NuñoSempere I literally threw up a limit order AFTER i saw you trade.

predicted NO

@NuñoSempere but yes, this feels like insider information

@NuñoSempere I threw up another 1k limit order for you

... can we get an end of year market?

predicted NO

It's been almost 2 months...

@firstuserhere It's coming up on 3 months since Ben posted

bought Ṁ120 NO from 40% to 30%

@MarcusAbramovitch yikes, didn't realize its been that long

predicted NO
predicted NO

@firstuserhere Rodeo has got your back :P

who cares

@RobertCousineau They said that like a month ago

@RobertCousineau wow that is new. Either way, market is made. I am very curious about this btw.
Before this, I thought quite favorably of the Nonlinear people, Emerson in particular. But the post is, tbh, quite convincing. I also wish they would at least release a partial response (indicating they will post more later).

@MarcusAbramovitch they/I caused my partner listen to 12+ hours of the nonlinear audio transcriptions of LW posts on one road trip. That was pretty useful of them in my opinion!

But yeah - that post was significant.. very curious to see how they respond.

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