Will I be on Lex Fridman's podcast in 2023?
resolved Feb 10

If Lex Fridman publishes a podcast with me as either a full or partial guest before the end of 2023, this will resolve 'yes'

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Liloz01 avatar
Liloz01predicted NO

Rigged, tottally, and utterly rigged. Holders had information that influenced the outcome. How do I report this to the FTC?

RobertoGomez avatar
Roberto Gomezpredicted NO

@Liloz01 Information that influenced the outcome? Like secret video of Lex with Russian hookers that they used to blackmail him in to inviting her?

Wobbles avatar

Let's goooooo, easiest 6 mana of my life. Thank you @Aella

Simon1551 avatar
Simonpredicted NO

@DesTiny same -10

LucaMasters avatar
Luca Masterspredicted YES

@DesTiny Dang it.

Simon1551 avatar
Simonpredicted NO
Writer avatar
Writerpredicted NO

adios my ten mana sorry for being a degenerate ( ̄ー ̄)ゞ

egroj avatar
JAAMbought Ṁ10,000 of YES

This can resolve now

Aella avatar
Aella ​predicted YES

@egroj I'm trying to resolve it but it keeps giving me "APIError: An unknown error occurred."

I guess i'll try again later?

ian avatar
Ian Philipspredicted YES

@Aella I recently changed the resolution system to track payouts better but it looks like it has trouble when there are a lot of payouts, working on a fix rn!

JamieCrom avatar
jamiepredicted NO

i have no secret knowledge i just spent 14usd buying NO as part of my strategy to bet against rightwingers, which has been successful because prediction markets bias toward rightwingers pretty heavily. one time i asked aella online for a hundo to help me buy impossible whoppers and maybe some gas on my roadtrip to protesting a reputable business in LA. i can only assume when she ignored my request that she, like all libertarians and rationalists and and effective altruists, is ideologically opposed to protest. its unsurprising to hear that she is critical of black lives matter mobilization, for example. its obvious that she's a rightwinger, so as a stoic and disciplined mind, i adhered to my strategy to bet against rightwingers. thanks for reading my comment.

here are some disclaimers about my comment: im not cancelling anyone and im just asking questions. thanks again for reading my internet comment

BrendanFinan avatar
Brendan Finan


Wobbles avatar

@JamieCrom 10/10 meme

Liloz01 avatar
Liloz01bought Ṁ514 of NO

I feel that Lex will not get the "sex" software update within the next 18 months, thus, he would be unable to handle an interaction with Aella until at least mid-2024. I understand that the current landscape for software/"AI" shows accelerating progress, but I just don't see it happening.

CarsonGale avatar
Carson Galebought Ṁ100 of YES

@Liloz01 instances like this are why i love prediction markets

Liloz01 avatar
Liloz01predicted NO

@CarsonGale I love you.

AlexPower avatar
Alex Powerbought Ṁ500 of NO

It seems insane to be betting against Aella in this market. But I figure it's only 80% odds to happen even if there is a recording date scheduled for the episode.

Jasondebb avatar

@AlexPower@AlexPower 💀

EntireTwix avatar
Entire Twixpredicted YES

@AlexPower how do u figure

AlexPower avatar
Alex Powerpredicted NO

@AlexPower Oh no. This market did not resolve in my favor. Hopefully I am not leaving money on the table in my other markets ...

NuñoSempere avatar
Nuño Semperebought Ṁ100 of NO

Taking a medium sort position just out of general uncertainty, even if there was a preliminary understanding that this could happen, shit happens, life gets in the way.

yaboi69 avatar
yaboi69bought Ṁ500 of YES

@NuñoSempere I may be horribly wrong, but this seems like one of these cases where prediction markets don’t incentivize revealing information. I would be better off not saying anything and capturing more people buying into my limit order, than sharing evidence.

That said, watch 1 minute of this, from the timestamped moment: https://youtu.be/tJrA2XAtH_k?t=30170, and evaluate for yourself along with all the other recent market movements.

xyz avatar

Manifold should probably prepare for an influx in case this were to happen

egroj avatar
JAAMpredicted YES

I hope that they talk about Manifold Markets:

anne avatar
annepredicted YES

Both Aella and Lex bought “Yes” haha

CarsonGale avatar
Carson Galebought Ṁ50 of YES

@anne I'm wary of being trolled...but that does seem like good evidence!

CarsonGale avatar
Carson Galepredicted YES