Will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat by the end of 2023? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 1, 2024

Will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat by the end of 2023?

5%

chance

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is predicting NO at 12%

is predicting NO at 11% +Ṁ250

is predicting YES at 11%

is predicting YES at 12%

William Ehlhardt

bought Ṁ10 of YES

is predicting YES at 12%

bought Ṁ100 of YES

is predicting NO at 11%

is predicting NO at 11%

is predicting YES at 11%

is predicting NO at 11%

is predicting NO at 11%

is predicting YES at 11%

is predicting NO at 11%

is predicting YES at 11%

is predicting YES at 11%

is predicting NO at 12%

is predicting YES at 12%

is predicting YES at 12%

is predicting NO at 12% +Ṁ250

is predicting NO at 12%

is predicting NO at 10%

is predicting NO at 10%

is predicting YES at 10%

is predicting YES at 11%

bought Ṁ28 of YES

is predicting YES at 8%

is predicting YES at 10%

is predicting YES at 10%

is predicting NO at 10% +Ṁ250

Manifold Markets

is predicting NO at 6%

is predicting NO at 10%

is predicting NO at 8%

is predicting NO at 8%

is predicting NO at 8%

is predicting NO at 8%

bought Ṁ10 of YES

is predicting YES at 9%

is predicting YES at 10%

is predicting YES at 8%

bought Ṁ0 of NO

is predicting NO at 9%

is predicting YES at 9%

is predicting NO at 9%

is predicting NO at 9%

is predicting YES at 9%

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

bought Ṁ160 of YES

bought Ṁ0 of NO

is predicting NO at 7%

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO