19. Will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action in 2023? | Manifold Markets

closes Dec 31

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

19. Will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action in 2023?

79%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

This is question #19 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

YES shares

250

160

Peter Wildeford

125

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot

99

74

70

62

38

38

William D'Alessandro

37

24

24

Simon Mendelsohn

13

13

12

12

12

12

12

12

NO shares

338

272

128

113

108

Mikko Kärkkäinen

89

64

57

57

51

45

27

22

21

AccelerationBot

11

5

bought Ṁ20 YES at 79%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 79%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 78% to 79%

sold Ṁ10 YES from 79% to 78%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 78% to 79%

bought Ṁ55 YES from 77% to 78%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 77%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 77%

bought Ṁ50 YES from 75% to 77%

bought Ṁ30 NO from 78% to 75%

sold Ṁ3 NO at 78%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 77% to 78%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 77%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 77%

Mikko Kärkkäinen

bought Ṁ20 NO from 78% to 77%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 78%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 78%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ30/Ṁ100 YES at 78% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ55 NO from 82% to 77%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 83% to 82%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 83%

bought Ṁ3 NO at 83%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ35/Ṁ100 YES at 83% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ40 YES at 82%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 81% to 82%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 81%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 81%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 81%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 81%

bought Ṁ20 NO from 82% to 81%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 82%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 83% to 82%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 83%

sold Ṁ9 NO from 82% to 83%

bought Ṁ3 NO at 82%

bought Ṁ1 YES at 82%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 82%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 82%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 83% to 82%

sold Ṁ19 NO from 81% to 83%

William D'Alessandro

bought Ṁ30 YES from 80% to 81%

bought Ṁ1 NO at 80%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 81% to 80%

Peter Wildeford

bought Ṁ100 YES from 78% to 81%

bought Ṁ10 YES at 78%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 77% to 78%

bought Ṁ5 NO from 78% to 77%

bought Ṁ10 YES from 77% to 78%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 79% to 77%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ53/Ṁ100 NO at 79% (cancelled)