Inspired by Polymarket where the price is currently 5% with a liquidity of thousands of USD! Can Manifold do better?
Resolves when a candidate becomes presumptive nominee after securing a majority of pledged delegates; or when a candidate is officially selected as nominee, whichever happens first.
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@Joshua it would be sad becuase i was asked to bet here to prove i was serious about hillary becoming nominee.. but then maybe this market isnt even about hillary becoming nominee! but i wont get upset unless she actually does become the nominee!
@jim also if you didn't see what I said in the other thread, I'll just pay you mana myself if that ends up happening.
@jack oh i didnt see that thank u jack.
it's just us ppl who think that biden won't be the nominee all expected him to stay in long enough to be able to hand-select the nominee, so as it turns out there is big difference for us between nominee and presumptive nominee
I think it's nearly identical, edge case details like that are usually in the description but not in the title. How many times has the presumptive nominee not ended up being the nominee in history?
It says inspired by polymarket, the intent wasn't to be the same as polymarket.
Also if she does end up being the nominee I will just pay you mana myself because that would be hilarious
@Conflux I remember just one guy who would rant about how the DNC was going to rig it for her to be the nominee again (even after the debates lmao) and bet massively on it.
@Conflux there are only three people on Earth allowed to be president: Hillary, Joe, and Donald.