resolved Mar 28

That is, a sentence >=50 years

Dec 22, 5:02pm: Does SBF get a life-sentence? → Does SBF get a sentence of 50 years or more?

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bought Ṁ3,000 NO

this can resolve NO

bought Ṁ100 NO

limit orders up if you want more liquidity around 50%

if you ask i might do up to 5k but i'd have to read more

Was facing guilty on all counts, was facing 115, maxed out penalties, didn’t seem apologetic, I think sentencing seems reasonable but not overboard chance of going 50+.

predicted NO

This isn’t for his education,

It’s to prevent his next scam or the next aspiring “world savior”

Locking him up and torturing him is what Sam would want as a pure act utilitarian — see his blog on how “utilitarianism” convinced him abortion is good and how any measures once could think of that decrease the next fraud by 0.0001% are not only morally justified but morally required.

What’s good for the…

predicted NO

What would be the point of a 50 year sentence? He won't learn anything more than if he gets 30 yrs...

Madoff got 150 years.

I'm not a legal expert, but I'm pretty sure that in many jurisdictions "life sentence" is a qualitatively different thing than just a really, really long prison sentence. There are places where any number of years is actually equal to a life sentence. In the federal courts, for example, it appears that the term "life sentence" actually means "life sentence, no parole." So a 50 year sentence would NOT be equivalent to a life sentence. Unless my analysis is wrong, you should change the title of this market. A less misleading title would be "Does SBF get a sentence of 50 years or more?"

predicted NO

@akrasiac *NOT actually equal to a life sentence

@akrasiac Thank you. I will change the title. :))

No one uses language more intentionally than the NYT; same clan innit

predicted YES

You should probably clarify whether or not something like a ~60+ year federal no parole prison sentence will be considered a life sentence for purposes of resolution, given SBF's natural expected lifespan.

predicted YES

@DeanValentine Sure I will consider anything >=50 years

Based CFTC to make Sam Bankman Fried the only person on earth unable to own Bitcoin or Eth

Lifetime ban from crypto for all FTX employees

They were, in fact, always front-running and never good at trading; darker than anyone imagined:

Subsidized this market 1000M$, because I want the people who are wrong in these SBF markets to feel the pain of losing more.

SBF was charged with WIRE FRAUD. He is subject to MANDATORY MINIMUMS. The elizabeth holmes case is not relevant except AESTHETICALLY. Y'all need to wake the hell up already.

I'm pushing this to 30%, to be on the safe side, and I hope the rest of you have the cajones to push it up to 50% where it actually belongs.

predicted NO

@DeanValentine Uh, so was Elizabeth Holmes. she was convicted of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and wire fraud.

predicted NO

@DeanValentine You have no idea what you are talking about.

predicted YES

@BTE Whoops.

@DeanValentine I'm still right tho

predicted NO

@DeanValentine No, not about Elizabeth Holmes or SBF. You need to read up on concurrent sentences.