Does SBF get a sentence of 50 years or more?
132
623
3.1K
2025
34%
chance

That is, a sentence >=50 years

Dec 22, 5:02pm: Does SBF get a life-sentence? → Does SBF get a sentence of 50 years or more?

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ0 of NO

limit orders up if you want more liquidity around 50%

if you ask i might do up to 5k but i'd have to read more

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

Was facing guilty on all counts, was facing 115, maxed out penalties, didn’t seem apologetic, I think sentencing seems reasonable but not overboard chance of going 50+.

predicts NO
sold Ṁ445 of NO

This isn’t for his education,

It’s to prevent his next scam or the next aspiring “world savior”

Locking him up and torturing him is what Sam would want as a pure act utilitarian — see his blog on how “utilitarianism” convinced him abortion is good and how any measures once could think of that decrease the next fraud by 0.0001% are not only morally justified but morally required.

What’s good for the…

predicts NO

What would be the point of a 50 year sentence? He won't learn anything more than if he gets 30 yrs...

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Madoff got 150 years.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I'm not a legal expert, but I'm pretty sure that in many jurisdictions "life sentence" is a qualitatively different thing than just a really, really long prison sentence. There are places where any number of years is actually equal to a life sentence. In the federal courts, for example, it appears that the term "life sentence" actually means "life sentence, no parole." So a 50 year sentence would NOT be equivalent to a life sentence. Unless my analysis is wrong, you should change the title of this market. A less misleading title would be "Does SBF get a sentence of 50 years or more?"

predicts NO

@akrasiac *NOT actually equal to a life sentence

@akrasiac Thank you. I will change the title. :))

bought Ṁ350 of NO

No one uses language more intentionally than the NYT; same clan innit

predicts YES

You should probably clarify whether or not something like a ~60+ year federal no parole prison sentence will be considered a life sentence for purposes of resolution, given SBF's natural expected lifespan.

predicts YES

@DeanValentine Sure I will consider anything >=50 years

Based CFTC to make Sam Bankman Fried the only person on earth unable to own Bitcoin or Eth

Lifetime ban from crypto for all FTX employees

They were, in fact, always front-running and never good at trading; darker than anyone imagined:

bought Ṁ30 of YES
bought Ṁ100 of NO

@DeanValentine I will. Come bet on my markets too!! I got hundreds of them!!!

Subsidized this market 1000M$, because I want the people who are wrong in these SBF markets to feel the pain of losing more.

SBF was charged with WIRE FRAUD. He is subject to MANDATORY MINIMUMS. The elizabeth holmes case is not relevant except AESTHETICALLY. Y'all need to wake the hell up already.

I'm pushing this to 30%, to be on the safe side, and I hope the rest of you have the cajones to push it up to 50% where it actually belongs.

bought Ṁ35 of YES
predicts NO

@DeanValentine Uh, so was Elizabeth Holmes. she was convicted of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and wire fraud. https://www.justice.gov/usao-ndca/pr/theranos-founder-elizabeth-holmes-found-guilty-investor-fraud

predicts NO

@DeanValentine You have no idea what you are talking about.

predicts YES

@BTE Whoops.

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@DeanValentine I'm still right tho

predicts NO

@DeanValentine No, not about Elizabeth Holmes or SBF. You need to read up on concurrent sentences.