Matthew Barnett's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -4.37
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Matthew Barnett bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
- Will I get admitted to EA Global: Bay Area 2023?YESṀ5,000
- Will this market have at least M$31,415 invested into it by Pi Day (March 14th)?YESṀ1,500
- If Slime Mold Time Mold conclude a positive result from their potassium study, will Natalia completely annihilate their analysis within 6 months?YESṀ1,000
97%
- Will this market have M$15,000 invested by February 25th?YESṀ15,000
- If Slime Mold Time Mold conclude a positive result from their potassium study, will Natalia completely annihilate their analysis within 6 months?YESṀ3,000
- If Slime Mold Time Mold conclude a positive result from their potassium study, will Natalia completely annihilate their analysis within 6 months?YESṀ2,000