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MANIFOLD
Will the linked market fall to less than 15% for at least 12 hours before March 12th Eastern Time?
30
Ṁ100Ṁ340k
resolved Mar 11
Resolved
NO
Here's an interesting market: https://manifold.markets/Honourary/the-replacement-administrator-for-a In the discussion, Gurkenglas said, > Gurkenglas: The current 60% on "next administrator identifies as female" is way too high, right? Right? > TheSkeward: Unless they know something I don't, yes > TheSkeward: I'd estimate that one around 10%, personally > From the Discord in question, where TheSkeward is the current admin. Yet at the same time, a whale keeps buying YES. This question resolves to YES if the linked market drops lower than 15% before March 12th Eastern Time for at least 12 hours continuously. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. Mar 4, 8:31pm: To clarify, TheSkeward is the current administrator. Mar 4, 8:44pm: Ignore the previous clarification. It was redundant. Mar 5, 10:34pm: If there's a dispute, we'll use the numbers from the API to settle this question. I will not round numbers. If the question's at 14.9% for 12 hours, that will count too.
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everybody was KUNG FU TIMING dee dee dee dee dee dee dee deeeeeeee
Kung fu timing. Got lucky there.!
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The whale who spent M$25000 on YES can sell all of their shares and buy NO to drop the price to almost 0%. I don't think the rest of us can sell enough NO and buy enough YES to bring the price back above 15%.
My guess is that the March 12th date was chosen because traders prefer putting their money on short-term markets.
Is March 12th an arbitrary date? (I'm not aware of the context of knowing when the next administrator is expected to be determined.)

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