If Yudkowsky and Hotz debate in 2023, will Yudkowsky "win"?
192
1.9kṀ73k
resolved Aug 18
Resolved
NO

YES = Yudkowsky

NO = Hotz

In response to https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1688617812141785088

"Winning" the debate is understood to be a subjective metric.

This market resolves 48 hours after the debate completes (if streamed live) or is released (if it is not streamed live and released as a recording).

The market resolves according to a Manifold poll opened after the conculsion of the debate and closed 48 hours later. The poll will ask "Who won the debate between Eliezer Yudkowsky and George Hotz?"

Link to the poll: https://manifold.markets/JacobWood/who-won-the-debate-between-eliezer

If no debate takes place by the end of 2023 the market resolves NA.

8/15 9:02AM PDT edit - changed resolution criteria from resolving as a probability to resolving according to the results of a poll

8/15 3:39PM PDT edit - added link to the poll for resolution

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