Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?
1.3k
4k
1.8k
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO
DeepMind has recently published a pre-print stating that their AlphaCode AI is as good as a median human competitor in competitive programming. See https://deepmind.com/blog/article/Competitive-programming-with-AlphaCode . Will DeepMind, or anyone else provide evidence in 2023 they can beat the best human competitors? #AI #DeepMind
Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ13,683
2Ṁ8,643
3Ṁ2,441
4Ṁ2,165
5Ṁ1,637
Sort by:
sold Ṁ68 of YES

No reason to hold anymore, I don't expect anything major to be released this year to beat this

tarting from this histogram (Wikipedia ),we can see that the market size of AI from 2016 to 2023 has been growing steadily. AI, exemplified by tools like OpenAI's Codex, continues to advance and automate certain programming tasks. However, the complete replacement of human programmers appears unlikely in the foreseeable future. This is because the nuanced and creative aspects of programming, as well as the need for ethical judgement and understanding of complex human needs, remain beyond AI's current capabilities.

while AI, exemplified by tools like OpenAI's Codex, continues to advance and automate certain programming tasks, the complete replacement of human programmers appears unlikely in the foreseeable future. The nuanced and creative aspects of programming, coupled with the need for ethical judgment and understanding of complex human needs, remain beyond AI's current capabilities. The evolving role of programmers may involve greater collaboration with AI, emphasizing creativity and problem-solving. Ethical considerations and the irreplaceable human touch in coding underscore the necessity for a balanced approach to AI integration, ensuring it complements, rather than supplants, human expertise.

A survey indicates 59% believe AI may replace programmers, with 21% foreseeing it within 5-10 years. However, 34% think it will occur post-2031. Computer programmers have a 52% automation risk score. AI coding tools like Codex and Copilot aid programmers but won't fully replace them, as creativity and ethical judgment remain pivotal.

predicted NO

As this will probably resolve NO I made a duplicate market for 2024 Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2024?

bought Ṁ75 of NO

I wish I could get 100x leverage for this market.

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

@Tater You can just buy mana with real money and bet down the market, it'll take like $25

predicted NO

@42irrationalist But the money I put in doesn't come out? Doesn't seem like the same thing. I would rather play with mana I earned through the website anyway.

predicted NO

@Tater It doesn't come back to you, but you can donate it to charity!

predicted NO

@jcb It doesn't come back to you but it makes your profit graph brrrrrrrr

predicted NO

@42irrationalist also (potentially) true!

predicted NO

as the complexity of the programming problem rises, the probability that an LLM can produce a correct solution decreases exponentially.

predicted NO

@JonathanRay "median human competitor" is a pretty low bar

Искусственный интеллект никогда не будет таким хитрым, как человек. Компьютер может думать все, что хочет, но человек знает, где находится розетка. 🔌

Why do you bet yes here, so strongly, a half year is past now, @Gurkenglas

predicted NO

@tailcalled according to people on Twitter, it only removed one instruction, which hardly seems like an innovation worth a Nature paper

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@tailcalled also c'mon, figuring out a better sorting algorithm is way different then doing competitive programming

@tailcalled Note that while the Nature article that made the news is recent, the change in question was introduced way back in January 2022.
https://reviews.llvm.org/D118029

predicted NO

@RobinGreen You underestimate the muted yet extremist enthusiasm of the code golf gallery. Imagine a 100,000 competitors on TopCoder, HackerRank, etc. doing the slow golf clap at once.

They're at 34% right now and estimate top humans at 90%. The strongest argument for YES is that this is something that they can self-train on (like games, where they've made fast progress), but the economic incentive to optimize for competitive coding over "median coding, but across a wide variety of domains" seems small, and they've made a pretty explicit shift from research-for-awesome towards implementation-for-product, so the existing trend line is probably even too high

predicted YES

@MatthewRitter Also I think the beginner problems vs. expert problems is comparable to the difference between solving intro calculus problems vs. doing IMO problems.

You can beat quite a large amount of humans by doing extremely elementary problem solving and just being able to code correctly and quickly.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

@levifinkelstein Great point. I'm remembering how much of standardized testing was just about not getting bored and distracted (and noticing when a question was designed to be in the top decile of difficulty)

Y’all should nominate your markets here to be showcased:

https://manifold.markets/Austin/manifold-may-showcase-will-25-users?r=Rm94dHJvdA

predicted NO

@Foxtrot How is this related to this market you're posting a comment on?

More related questions