Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?
WorldGlobal MacroWarsUkraine-Russia warRussiaUkraine
Mini
287
Ṁ203k
resolved Feb 23
Resolved
YES
Will Russian military have a presence within the Ukraine before March 1st, 2202? #Russia #Ukraine #shortterm Jan 15, 7:25am: #RussiaUkraine Close date updated to 2022-02-21 5:42 pm Close date updated to 2022-02-28 12:00 pm Feb 22, 6:02pm: This will resolve YES if at least two major news sources state clearly that Russian tanks or troops have physically entered the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, or any other part of the Ukraine exclusive of the Crimea. News reports that random politician X said Y will be largely disregarded, although major players (e.g., Biden, Putin, Zelensky) will be taken to be knowledgeable if motivated parties. It should be noted that the separatists may have tanks of their own, and the Ukraine certainly does. The presence of tanks on the ground is weak evidence of invasion. Feb 22, 7:54pm: The WSJ, the NYT, and the Washington Post are reporting Russian troop movements into Ukrainian territory. European news agencies are being more conservative, but various government officials in the UK and Poland have stated that Russian troops have entered the Ukraine. The market criteria has been met: I am resolving this to YES.
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The market description has been updated to be more specific.
Market closed; presumed to resolve yes, but pending confirmation.
Russia's peacekeeping mission has sent russian military into Ukraine
NYT reporting Moscow has ordered (regular) troops to Donetsk and Luhansk.
I bet Putin has a big stake in No and is holding out for March
The bull case for invasion: https://akarlin.substack.com/p/regathering-of-the-russian-lands
(The context is that Russia is about to recognize the breakaway regions in Donbas as sovereign territories: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/21/world/ukraine-russia-putin-biden#russia-will-recognize-two-regions-in-ukraine-a-possible-prelude-to-invasion)
From Russia's perspective, Ukraine is essentially illegally occupying the territory of other sovereign states now. This seems like a big deal, so my credence of an invasion by March is closer to about 55% than 39%.
Putin basically confirming war.
At this point it's obvious there will be open warfare, the only question is whether it'll start within the month but 37% is way too low.
Russia has no incentives for a war in Ukraine.
@RavenKopelman Yes, *everyone* knows it's obviously wrong. The problem is that some people know it's obviously too low and others know it's obviously too high. :D
Crazy volume on this market and yet the odds seem so wrong... but what would the benefit of manipulating this market be?
Arbitrage opportunity with https://manifold.markets/Duncan/what-day-will-russia-invade-ukraine
I created a market which attempts to avoid the dynamic parimutuel cost function problem for the month of March tailing off of this market, but you have to enter it before the end of February Ukrainian time to participate. https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/will-russia-invade-ukraine-in-march
Ukrainian officials allegedly coming under fire, more Western heads of state doubling down on "Putin has decided to invade" rhetoric, and increased Russian expectation of escalating conflict seems to point in a certain direction.
Unfortunately, my balance is now positive. In his latest news conference, Biden said on Putin: "As of this moment, I am conviced he has made the decision [to invade]. I have every reason to believe it." https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1494794858753576963
@MattPrice, that's what they call buying insurance.
I still think this is quite likely, but betting even fake money on an outcome I fervently hope does not come to pass is getting too ghoulish for me. Instead going to pray for peace while expecting war.
A good blog post collecting a lot of information: https://spiegelmock.com/2022/02/17/whats-really-going-on-the-ukrainian-border/
I don't get how this is so low. Everything appears logistically ready, US and UK both saying unequivocally they think Putin has decided to do it, worst day of shelling at the border since 2018, lots of Russian talk about Ukrainian genocide. It could all be a fakeout, but surely the chance has to be higher than even?
Market movement depends on which purveyor of manufactured news you believe. 🤣
Surprised markets haven't reacted to the news of continued Russian moves, tbqh
There are reports of shelling and global stock markets seem to have reacted to this news. These events seem like they should have adjusted the implied probability upward at least a bit on Manifold.

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