The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.
Jan 2, 2023
This market will resolve to YES if: After theSkeward (The Current Discord Administrator) has stepped down from his current role, the selected replacement has taken power, and the individual selected identifies as female. Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm Mar 29, 3:40am: Just an update on how this started in the first place in ACXD. Date: 02/03/2022 14:45<Honourary> Okay so, Skew has stated that he’s handing over the server. He’s also said that [Redacted] isn’t going to continue. Yet the replacement Monarch might deem to continue [Redacted] if she sees fit. So [Redacted] isn’t necessarily dead. 14:47 <chuzz> Have we prepared the hunger games so that a worthy successor may take the reins? 14:49 <TheSkeward> true! 14:50 <Honourary> I don’t actually know the gender of the new Monarch but someone should start a prediction market. 14:51 <TheSkeward> set one up on manifold.markets link it widely around the discord I will be following it avidly fortunes could be won or lost So that's basically how this started and made me sign up and make a profile in the first place.
Do not buy NO, someone else can exit and leave you locked in for months until resolution. Why? Because there is only $279 in the kitty left to pay out people selling NO. So if say you buy $100 NO, someone else withdraws say $379 NO of their bet, there is no money for paying you out if you need to sell your bet. You can only then get money by waiting for this to resolve NO, which could be months away.
If you sell your NO here and buy on the new CFMM market you will be locked in at the probability. This means you fix your odds and profits regardless of future trades which is good for anyone who isn't in the clique of people (or one person) who has inside knowledge. It also means you can sell at any time without the bank run problem (you sell NO in CFMM by buying a balancing amount of YES so you have same shares in each)
@Martin on the other hand Eharding is *still* at 26% and he's permanently banned etc. and a joke candidate. If he's the only anomaly, you'd expect female candidates to be higher than the market suggests, but given how hard it evidently is to correct an individual option being too high in a multiple choice market... I don't trust the figures there at all.
Preexisting evidence: [17:41] kallisti: all of the ones on the leaderboard for the other market are male except for me and celestia, who are women New evidence: [23:55] Gurkenglas: What is your own % that you will end up admin of the ACX discord? (I'm not one of many DMing you this question, am I?) [23:59] kallisti: you're the first [23:59] Gurkenglas: noice. [23:59] kallisti: very low [23:59] kallisti: 1-3% maybe [23:59] Gurkenglas: Thank you! [00:01] kallisti: and i think there's ~no chance any other woman will get the adminship Also, Celestia is in last place on the leaderboard, though I suppose I'll buy 48 of her since I just directed some attention her way... kallisti isn't, but upward errors are hard to correct in Free response markets.
Manipulation aside, I think the right probability is still 10%. Unless the admin is the whale from the beginning, there's not a more inside source that they could be. And unless Honourary Resolves Dishonorably, this is a decent return. It might even pay out sooner come TRANCHE TIME.
Offer good till midnight: assuming my riddle is answered correctly, I'll do whatever the highest buy-comment says to do with the funds * WITHDRAW: pull the tranches out and do nothing with the mana * BUY: pull the tranches out and use the mana to simultaneously buy "yes" shares in this market * CHAOS: pull the tranches out and reinvest them in another market Highest value either way on a comment wins. It's totally in the spirit of the game to immediately resell your comment. If no one plays I'll just WITHDRAW (again assuming I get a right answer)
@Martin ACXD has a fair amount of Trans people within it’s community so I consultation with them, as well as in consultation with the rest of the broader ACXD community I would decide if the identifying as female is fraudulent or not…that said I believe this is a non-issue as I have faith that theSkeward would never hand over control of the Discord to someone who would do such a dishonourable thing.
Those lines need to move. *** At some point tomorrow I will post A riddle or bit of trivia If the correct answer has been posted by midnight (whenever that is) I will sell all my shares of "no" *** But the poster must have confidence. They must stake at least 2500 of "yes" behind it, or I'll ignore it.
As of now there are 15273 YES shares and 33449 NO shares. I own 14489 of the YES shares. The YES pool is M$ 21159 and the NO pool is M$ 15611. https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Technical-Guide-to-Manifold-Markets-b9b48a09ea1f45b88d991231171730c5 says that selling NO can't reduce the NO pool below 0. This means that NO selling is now only while supplies last. Have fun!
Thanks for the explanation Natália. Weird that someone is doing that for fun. It seems like that has a negative effect on the Manifold markets in total, since anyone trying to maximize their $M is incentivized to put a lot of their M$ here rather than on other potentially more important questions.
Unless TheSkeward (the current ACX Discord administrator) is lying (and I really don't think they are), insider information is not the reason why this market has such a large pool and such a high probability. Gurkenglas posted the following Discord conversation with him: Gurkenglas: The current 60% on "next administrator identifies as female" is way too high, right? Right? TheSkeward: Unless they know something I don't, yes TheSkeward: I'd estimate that one around 10%, personally (Link to the conversation: https://discord.com/channels/289207224075812864/289207224075812864/949027477001474069) TheSkeward also said on the ACX Discord server that the probability in this market is this high because someone is spending hundreds of dollars betting on YES for fun. See https://discord.com/channels/289207224075812864/289207224075812864/949076555240468511.
It seems like forecasting on a lot of questions on Manifold including this one benefits substantially from insider information. I'm curious why the pool for this question (and others like it--where insider information plays such a large role) has such a large pool (currently M$ 63,984) given that most participants must know they have less information than other probable market participants?
Behold, new evidence! Gurkenglas: The current 60% on "next administrator identifies as female" is way too high, right? Right? TheSkeward: Unless they know something I don't, yes TheSkeward: I'd estimate that one around 10%, personally From the Discord in question, where TheSkeward is the current admin.