The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.

This market will resolve to YES if: After theSkeward (The Current Discord Administrator) has stepped down from his current role, the selected replacement has taken power, and the individual selected identifies as female. Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm Mar 29, 3:40am: Just an update on how this started in the first place in ACXD. Date: 02/03/2022 14:45<Honourary> Okay so, Skew has stated that he’s handing over the server. He’s also said that [Redacted] isn’t going to continue. Yet the replacement Monarch might deem to continue [Redacted] if she sees fit. So [Redacted] isn’t necessarily dead. 14:47 <chuzz> Have we prepared the hunger games so that a worthy successor may take the reins? 14:49 <TheSkeward> true! 14:50 <Honourary> I don’t actually know the gender of the new Monarch but someone should start a prediction market. 14:51 <TheSkeward> set one up on manifold.markets link it widely around the discord I will be following it avidly fortunes could be won or lost So that's basically how this started and made me sign up and make a profile in the first place. Jun 9, 5:16pm: I received a notification that the free choice market for the future administrator was resolved, as well as an email notifying me about nfd's bet. I quickly emailed TheSkeward to get confirmation, as I wanted to prevent front-running if an official announcement had been made. After TheSkeward confirmed for me that Zenbu had been picked and that furthermore she had accepted, I logged onto Manifold Markets and resolved the market. I acknowledge that the original description says that it will resolved only after TheSkeward has stepped down and the replacement has taken power, but in hindsight unless there are exigent circumstances I decided that resolving early following the announcement was more honourable than waiting for an official change of command ceremony to be completed and enabling further market distorting front-running of the event to happen. If this premature action was honourable or dishonourable I leave to @Gurkenglas to decide. On a personal note, this market was made on a whim, as a joke. I never expected it to be one of the largest markets on Manifold, and when I first made it, I thought only fellow members of the ACX Discord would participate. The stuff with Spindle, the large amounts of money injected into the market, the large swings, the derivative market by @Gurkenglas about me resolving Honourably or not, and the final flourish of getting mentioned by Scott Alexander in his Substack was to be honest, a bit of an emotional roller coaster. I started this thinking all Prediction Markets are kind of a joke, and finished it with a much greater understanding after going down countless rabbit holes about what they were and how they are valuable to society. I never asked for this, I never expected the responsibility of resolving a 1.5 million M$ market. This is been quite the learning and growing experience for me. Thanks for everyone who participated and congratulations to Zenbu!

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ10,157
2		Ṁ8,301
3		Ṁ6,182
4		Ṁ2,689
5		Ṁ2,047

🏅 Top traders

Related questions