The replacement administrator for Astral Codex Ten identifies as female.

25%

chance

25%

chance

Honourary

Jan 2, 2023

M$1,475,558 bet

This market will resolve to YES if: After theSkeward (The Current Discord Administrator) has stepped down from his current role, the selected replacement has taken power, and the individual selected identifies as female. Close date updated to 2023-01-01 11:59 pm Mar 29, 3:40am: Just an update on how this started in the first place in ACXD. Date: 02/03/2022 14:45<Honourary> Okay so, Skew has stated that he’s handing over the server. He’s also said that [Redacted] isn’t going to continue. Yet the replacement Monarch might deem to continue [Redacted] if she sees fit. So [Redacted] isn’t necessarily dead. 14:47 <chuzz> Have we prepared the hunger games so that a worthy successor may take the reins? 14:49 <TheSkeward> true! 14:50 <Honourary> I don’t actually know the gender of the new Monarch but someone should start a prediction market. 14:51 <TheSkeward> set one up on manifold.markets link it widely around the discord I will be following it avidly fortunes could be won or lost So that's basically how this started and made me sign up and make a profile in the first place.

Tetraspace bought M$20 of NO2 months ago

No idea what the hell is happening in this market but I want in

Adam bought M$507 of YES2 months ago

LFG

Undox bought M$1 of YES2 months ago

There was a house new New Orleans…

Celestia bought M$50 of YES2 months ago

Let's goooo

Undox bought M$1 of YES2 months ago

Lel

Conflux bought M$20 of YES2 months ago

https://manifold.markets/Gurkenglas/will-adam-face-enough-social-conseq Cryptic indication that mayyybe a rugpull is coming.

Undox bought M$1 of YES2 months ago

ghost town

Yev bought M$1 of YES2 months ago

*crickets*

Undox bought M$1 of YES2 months ago

With that in mind lets start a 24h YES ponzi. Buy YES and promise to keep it in for 24 hours. Let's see how high the prob can go!

Undox sold M$1 of YES2 months ago

Do not buy NO, someone else can exit and leave you locked in for months until resolution. Why? Because there is only $279 in the kitty left to pay out people selling NO. So if say you buy $100 NO, someone else withdraws say $379 NO of their bet, there is no money for paying you out if you need to sell your bet. You can only then get money by waiting for this to resolve NO, which could be months away.

Undox bought M$1 of YES2 months ago

NO pool has 279 left to pay out the NO-sters

Martin bought M$1 of YES2 months ago

If you sell your NO here and buy on the new CFMM market you will be locked in at the probability. This means you fix your odds and profits regardless of future trades which is good for anyone who isn't in the clique of people (or one person) who has inside knowledge. It also means you can sell at any time without the bank run problem (you sell NO in CFMM by buying a balancing amount of YES so you have same shares in each)

Martin bought M$700 of YES2 months ago

Also there is https://manifold.markets/Martin/the-replacement-administrator-for-a-836f80cfb375 running on the new pool formula CFMM

aps bought M$1 of NO2 months ago

@Martin on the other hand Eharding is *still* at 26% and he's permanently banned etc. and a joke candidate. If he's the only anomaly, you'd expect female candidates to be higher than the market suggests, but given how hard it evidently is to correct an individual option being too high in a multiple choice market... I don't trust the figures there at all.

Martin bought M$24 of YES2 months ago

https://manifold.markets/TheSkeward/who-will-be-the-administrator-of-th is saying 14% if you add up the Female candidates there.

Martin bought M$1 of YES2 months ago

Just 1228 left in the bank for NO withdrawals

Martin bought M$1 of YES2 months ago

1657 left in NO after that trading

Martin sold M$1 of YES2 months ago

With 15071.2 of bets, I think this is like a fractional reserve system.

Martin bought M$1 of YES2 months ago

Only 1914 in the NO pool

Martin sold M$1,018 of YES2 months ago

Just offering a good deal to anyone wanting to buy some Y

Celestia bought M$1 of YES2 months ago

Chat doesn't know that I'm just taking over :)

Martin sold M$1 of YES2 months ago

I would have got away with it if it weren’t for you meddling kids

Spindle bought M$5 of YES2 months ago

U are not the GENUINE spindle.

Martin bought M$1 of YES2 months ago

TRANCHE hour ... or NO ???

Gurkenglas bought M$2,000 of NO2 months ago

Preexisting evidence: [17:41] kallisti: all of the ones on the leaderboard for the other market are male except for me and celestia, who are women New evidence: [23:55] Gurkenglas: What is your own % that you will end up admin of the ACX discord? (I'm not one of many DMing you this question, am I?) [23:59] kallisti: you're the first [23:59] Gurkenglas: noice. [23:59] kallisti: very low [23:59] kallisti: 1-3% maybe [23:59] Gurkenglas: Thank you! [00:01] kallisti: and i think there's ~no chance any other woman will get the adminship Also, Celestia is in last place on the leaderboard, though I suppose I'll buy 48 of her since I just directed some attention her way... kallisti isn't, but upward errors are hard to correct in Free response markets.

Spindle bought M$1 of NO3 months ago

That's because it isn't over yet

John Beshir sold M$5,751 of NO3 months ago

Yeah I saw that coming. Actually expected it to be bigger than it was!

Gurkenglas sold M$5,734 of NO3 months ago

Who saw that coming? I saw that coming.

aps bought M$1 of NO3 months ago

Alright what the hell

Gurkenglas sold M$2,005 of NO3 months ago

Way ahead of ya, boss!

Spindle bought M$1 of NO3 months ago

Those holding "no" would be well advised to sell any tranches by 5:15 pm today and ideally as close to that point in time as possible for MAXIMUM TRANCH POWER

Spindle bought M$2,200 of YES3 months ago

No!!!

Spindle sold M$11 of YES3 months ago

Is it TRAncHE TIme already????

Spindle bought M$2,000 of YES3 months ago

Not chess Mr. Spock. Poker

main_gi bought M$1 of NO3 months ago

CHESS BATTLE ADVANCED

Spindle bought M$2,000 of YES3 months ago

There is no manipulation

Martin sold M$102 of YES3 months ago

Yes, aim for 10% people. Please!

Sam Casavant bought M$1 of NO3 months ago

"Haven't seen you lately, what have you been up to?"

Sam Casavant bought M$250 of NO3 months ago

Manipulation aside, I think the right probability is still 10%. Unless the admin is the whale from the beginning, there's not a more inside source that they could be. And unless Honourary Resolves Dishonorably, this is a decent return. It might even pay out sooner come TRANCHE TIME.

Matthew Barnett sold M$1,647 of NO3 months ago

@Martin I doubt the existence of this "under 15% whale".

Spindle bought M$20 of YES3 months ago

Will there be additional unbundling? THE WORLD WONDERS

Martin bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

The under 15% whale needs to operate without any other whales interfering.

Spindle bought M$5 of YES3 months ago

Martin what you say assumes I don't put tens of thousands more on the scale. The odds of that are hard to calculate

Martin bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

And the derivative market is moot there is no one who can tame this wild buffalo for 12 hours. A minnow can spike it to 15 at will.

Martin sold M$300 of NO3 months ago

Market is at fair prob now, IMO.

Spindle bought M$2,200 of YES3 months ago

Tranchey clause is real after all. Gogogogo! Trim the hedges! Assify the assets! Hop to it!

Martin bought M$275 of NO3 months ago

Don't sell your NO, if you get a loss now, just hold it until the madness is over and the market goes to true prob.

Martin sold M$1 of YES3 months ago

TRANCHE means big NO sell off, or so they say, but I think it means big YES sell off.

Martin bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

No problem staying awake, I have positioned myself so that the Sun is directly ahead. Ish.

Spindle bought M$1 of NO3 months ago

Stay awake be ready tranche time draws close

Martin sold M$1 of YES3 months ago

Are you on Atlantis time?

Spindle bought M$1 of NO3 months ago

TRANCHE TIME miscalculation! Tranche time is still happening tho, just later than I thought because I am bad at math (or am I)

Martin bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

You were on EST time all along. I was guessing GMT.

Spindle bought M$1 of NO3 months ago

ETA to TRANCHE, 2.5 hours

Spindle bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

Devoted fans! TRANCHE TIME Will happen, it's not midnight yet

John Beshir bought M$6,000 of YES3 months ago

BUY

Gurkenglas bought M$4,000 of NO3 months ago

WITHDRAW

Spindle bought M$1 of NO3 months ago

Things will be very volatile. Volatile times will be had by all. Tranches will be unbundled. Contango will be in full effect. Longvol futures will do a thing. It will be awesome

Martin sold M$402 of NO3 months ago

"IT IS NEARLY TRANCHE TIME" = volatility. Reverse butterfly is good.

Spindle bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

Yes. Prediction markets are very hard to manipulate, and price in factors like IT IS NEARLY TRANCHE TIME

Martin bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

Is this market what they had in mind when they coined the phrase "Wisdom of the crowd"

Spindle bought M$5 of NO3 months ago

I am so excited soon it will be TRANCHE TIME

Gurkenglas bought M$2,500 of YES3 months ago

BUY

Spindle bought M$20 of NO3 months ago

It gud

Gurkenglas sold M$500 of NO3 months ago

Can whether the answer to your riddle is correct hinge on whether the characters are capitalized correctly?

Spindle bought M$100 of NO3 months ago

Offer good till midnight: assuming my riddle is answered correctly, I'll do whatever the highest buy-comment says to do with the funds * WITHDRAW: pull the tranches out and do nothing with the mana * BUY: pull the tranches out and use the mana to simultaneously buy "yes" shares in this market * CHAOS: pull the tranches out and reinvest them in another market Highest value either way on a comment wins. It's totally in the spirit of the game to immediately resell your comment. If no one plays I'll just WITHDRAW (again assuming I get a right answer)

Spindle bought M$20 of NO3 months ago

This will be a fun evening

Gurkenglas bought M$2,500 of YES3 months ago

Hufsa, El-Ahrairah. Or is the riddle on how the metaphor applies here?

Gurkenglas bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

And are you winning? :P

Luna Nova bought M$1 of NO3 months ago

I think the winning move is to ignore whatever the fuck Spindle is doing.

Honourary bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

@Martin ACXD has a fair amount of Trans people within it’s community so I consultation with them, as well as in consultation with the rest of the broader ACXD community I would decide if the identifying as female is fraudulent or not…that said I believe this is a non-issue as I have faith that theSkeward would never hand over control of the Discord to someone who would do such a dishonourable thing.

Spindle bought M$50 of NO3 months ago

Bring your knowledge to the market: *** Once they put a prince on trial a prince with a thousand enemies one witness testified they expected the witness to convict the prince instead the prince was totally exonerated name the witness name the prince

Martin bought M$251 of YES3 months ago

Because https://www.internationalwomensday.com/

Spindle bought M$300 of NO3 months ago

Those lines need to move. *** At some point tomorrow I will post A riddle or bit of trivia If the correct answer has been posted by midnight (whenever that is) I will sell all my shares of "no" *** But the poster must have confidence. They must stake at least 2500 of "yes" behind it, or I'll ignore it.

Spindle bought M$500 of NO3 months ago

Look man I don't know what any of that means. All I know is y'all are really bundling my tranches right now

Martin sold M$0 of YES3 months ago

If a whale has $2k YES here they have good amo to get some money on the derivative market. That would be bearish for this market.

Spindle bought M$5 of NO3 months ago

Look if people would just DO WHAT I TELL THEM there would be a LOT of volatility. But nooooooooooooo y'all got me sitting on my couch before bed staring at STRAIGHT LINES. I HATE straight lines

Martin bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

Thanks spindle for creating some volatility again!

Spindle bought M$500 of NO3 months ago

yet

Spindle bought M$100 of NO3 months ago

not like TOO late, mind you

Spindle bought M$500 of NO3 months ago

getting late into the evening here...

Martin bought M$600 of YES3 months ago

Ok these markets have been a phoenix for me after losing 1000 to a platform bug (I might get that back). Here is another YOLO based on the probability just being kind a low at the moment and no incentive to keep it down.

Spindle bought M$1,000 of NO3 months ago

I have now withdrawn all my tranches from the derivative account and tranched them over to here. You have between 4 and 7 hours. Good luck

Martin bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

Spindles' Midnight can be a phrase for "an unknown future time".

Spindle bought M$1 of NO3 months ago

I might own more by midnight whenever that is

Gurkenglas bought M$725 of YES3 months ago

But how many tranches do you own here?

Spindle bought M$1 of NO3 months ago

I will sell all my tranches here at exactly midnight tomorrow if the odds of the derivatives market resolving "yes" are over 75% at that time. Confidence level 95%

Spindle bought M$200 of NO3 months ago

That's the spirit!

Martin bought M$94 of YES3 months ago

Liquidating a bunch of stuff at a loss to yolo here.

Spindle bought M$1 of NO3 months ago

Do it do it do it

Yev sold M$1,565 of YES3 months ago

... and back

Yev bought M$1,565 of YES3 months ago

Bumping to 15.01%

Spindle bought M$1 of NO3 months ago

I lied

Matthew Barnett bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

I still have no idea what’s happening in this market.

Martin sold M$0 of NO3 months ago

"The individual selected identifies as female." - what if they say nothing about it. Is that NO? And what is the deadline for them to say "Yo I identify". And does pronoun usage resolve this. Or not?

Spindle bought M$300 of NO3 months ago

my traunches are now fully bundled. This has been fun, ya bunch of traunch bundlers

Spindle sold M$4,527 of YES3 months ago

tails

Spindle bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

tails

Spindle bought M$10,000 of YES3 months ago

heads

Gurkenglas sold M$547 of YES3 months ago

Fine, apparently I misjudged what I need to make the price.

Gurkenglas sold M$1,901 of NO3 months ago

But since someone else is helping, here. It's now 599 in the NO pool.

Gurkenglas bought M$500 of YES3 months ago

Why not? I bought 2000 M$ of NO so they'd have anything to take out at all, after all.

Yev sold M$505 of YES3 months ago

No one is going to sell their NOs right after you brought the price up :D

Gurkenglas bought M$1,000 of YES3 months ago

There is currently 2105 M$ in the NO pool. Anyone interested?

Spindle bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

tails

Gurkenglas bought M$1,000 of YES3 months ago

It feels more fair if I now reveal that enough money has moved to the NO pool in this turbulence that there is no danger of running out - is what I was about to say, but then the trade right after this one bought 10000 again, so I'll have to recalculate.

Gurkenglas sold M$100 of YES3 months ago

Status: 10504 YES shares, 25952 NO shares 19101 YES M$, 8895 NO M$ That's 43% of the NO M$ pool gone since my last comment :V

Martin bought M$1 of NO3 months ago

I wish I hodled my 1000 NO from the other day now :-(

Yev sold M$10 of YES3 months ago

(I made my previous comment while Gurken was still typing their comment)

Gurkenglas bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

As of now there are 15273 YES shares and 33449 NO shares. I own 14489 of the YES shares. The YES pool is M$ 21159 and the NO pool is M$ 15611. https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Technical-Guide-to-Manifold-Markets-b9b48a09ea1f45b88d991231171730c5 says that selling NO can't reduce the NO pool below 0. This means that NO selling is now only while supplies last. Have fun!

Yev bought M$10 of YES3 months ago

Trading just to mess with your math

Yev sold M$499 of NO3 months ago

I don't know what the pickle jar is about to do, but I'd rather not risk my mana on it. :D

Gurkenglas bought M$4,295 of NO3 months ago

There we go :)

Spindle bought M$10,000 of YES3 months ago

heads

Gurkenglas sold M$3,748 of YES3 months ago

Well, worth a try.

Spindle bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

Tails

Spindle bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

By definition this is one of the most important questions on the market

William Kiely bought M$1 of NO3 months ago

Thanks for the explanation Natália. Weird that someone is doing that for fun. It seems like that has a negative effect on the Manifold markets in total, since anyone trying to maximize their $M is incentivized to put a lot of their M$ here rather than on other potentially more important questions.

Matthew Barnett bought M$1 of NO3 months ago

And now... https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-the-linked-market-fall-to-less

Natália Mendonça bought M$1 of NO3 months ago

Unless TheSkeward (the current ACX Discord administrator) is lying (and I really don't think they are), insider information is not the reason why this market has such a large pool and such a high probability. Gurkenglas posted the following Discord conversation with him: Gurkenglas: The current 60% on "next administrator identifies as female" is way too high, right? Right? TheSkeward: Unless they know something I don't, yes TheSkeward: I'd estimate that one around 10%, personally (Link to the conversation: https://discord.com/channels/289207224075812864/289207224075812864/949027477001474069) TheSkeward also said on the ACX Discord server that the probability in this market is this high because someone is spending hundreds of dollars betting on YES for fun. See https://discord.com/channels/289207224075812864/289207224075812864/949076555240468511.

William Kiely bought M$1 of NO3 months ago

It seems like forecasting on a lot of questions on Manifold including this one benefits substantially from insider information. I'm curious why the pool for this question (and others like it--where insider information plays such a large role) has such a large pool (currently M$ 63,984) given that most participants must know they have less information than other probable market participants?

Gurkenglas bought M$50 of NO3 months ago

Get your hedge here: https://manifold.markets/Gurkenglas/honourary-resolves-honorably

Gurkenglas sold M$692 of NO3 months ago

Gotta get back to my other markets.

Martin bought M$1 of YES3 months ago

This market seems one of the most suspect in terms of trading activity I have seen

Matthew bought M$20 of NO3 months ago

User with funny pickle name seems trustworthy.

Gurkenglas bought M$1,637 of NO3 months ago

Behold, new evidence! Gurkenglas: The current 60% on "next administrator identifies as female" is way too high, right? Right? TheSkeward: Unless they know something I don't, yes TheSkeward: I'd estimate that one around 10%, personally From the Discord in question, where TheSkeward is the current admin.

Gurkenglas sold M$758 of NO3 months ago

Realizing those gains to get back on 3rd place :)

Gurkenglas bought M$98 of NO3 months ago

After I dodged the trap, there followed *further* swings, so I came back.

Gurkenglas bought M$598 of NO3 months ago

Oh, Pepe overtook me again. Let's reroute more to this gold mine, then.

Gurkenglas bought M$527 of NO3 months ago

@Cyril, because the same person responsible for the early swings is having some manner of fun. In related news, I am now #3 on the leaderboard.

Cyril bought M$1 of NO3 months ago

I don’t know too much about the server, but could someone explain why it’s so high? Baseline would 50 %, how can we have so much certainty they’ll be female?

Gurkenglas sold M$105 of NO3 months ago

There, dodged the trap. Let someone else figure out what this is.

Gurkenglas bought M$50 of NO3 months ago

Who is this absolute chonker?

Place your bet

Amount

Probability

25%→25%

Estimated
payout if YES

M$0(+0.0%)