Will my upcoming post "Biological Anchors: A Trick That Might Or Might Not Work" get more than 100 Substack likes?
47
260
resolved Mar 1
Resolved
YES
Sometime in the next few weeks, I will publish a post reviewing Ajeya Cotra's report on AI timelines and Eliezer Yudkowsky's response at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ax695frGJEzGxFBK4/biology-inspired-agi-timelines-the-trick-that-never-works . The post is about 10,000 words long. This market resolves as positive iff, within one week after being posted, it gets 100+ Substack likes (ie the little heart button beneath the post). Feb 17, 4:30pm: On rereading this, the title and description are slightly different; I'm going to go with the title and say this only wins if it gets MORE THAN 100 likes, ie 101+
Get Ṁ200 play money

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bought Ṁ1 of YES
@ScottAlexander
bought Ṁ7,000 of YES
This should resolve to YES. It's at 101 likes according to this archive: https://web.archive.org/web/20220301024815/https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/biological-anchors-a-trick-that-might?utm_source=url The resolution criteria said it needed to be at 100+ "within one week after being posted", not at the end of the period.
bought Ṁ48 of NO
Doh, back down to 97 likes (I did confirm that it had hit 101) which suggests market manipulation, I guess? There's now an interesting ambiguity in that Scott could resolve to YES on the grounds that it did go above 100 by the deadline but I could also see the argument that retracted likes never should've counted anyway so if we end up below 100 then that'd be a NO. This is a lovely illustration of the elegance of Manifold Markets's design choice to leave resolution entirely to the market creator's discretion. Market creation would be so fraught and frictionful if you had to think ahead to corner cases like this.
bought Ṁ200 of YES
Like #101, congrats everyone.
bought Ṁ33 of YES
We're at 98 hearts already
bought Ṁ1 of NO
It's somewhat close but still a decent ways away, and most of the likes traditionally come immediately after the post is released. No guarantee either way in my eyes.
bought Ṁ200 of NO
Buying a small amount for potentially large payout, but it seems this market is very easy to rig for anyone who buys yes
bought Ṁ1 of NO
Post is up: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/biological-anchors-a-trick-that-might 22 likes within first 4 hours.
bought Ṁ9 of NO
Scott's post about AI and Yudkowsky back in January is one of the few in recent times to receive fewer than 100 likes. I'm going lower than typical base rate on this one.
bought Ṁ1 of NO
Of the 35 significant text posts (posts that aren't open threads, Highlights from the Comments on ___, guest posts, Mantic Mondays, ACX Grants, or link posts, and aren't subscriber only) that I see since September 1, 2021, 9 of them have had 100 or fewer likes. So the base rate for posts like this should be 74%.

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