Will I get admitted to EA Global: Bay Area 2023?
Effective Altruism
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resolved Feb 12
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YES

This is my second time applying to EAG. The first time was in late 2019, when I applied to EAG SF 2020, which I got rejected from.

I don't work at an EA org.

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bought Ṁ20 of NO

Only knowing that you wrote the takedown of SMTM, I think they should admit you, as I think it's really important for the movement that we have good epistemics. But I also think that previous behavior tends to be the best predictor of future behavior, and also 80% odds on admission is really high. I suspect this market is inflated somewhat due to people not wanting to be "mean" and bet against you.

bought Ṁ25 of NO

Admissions are very skewed towards people who work at EA orgs, from what I've heard.

bought Ṁ55 of NO

Bet down because they seem random (e.g. apparently rejected you previously!) not due to much doubt about your desirability as an attendee

bought Ṁ25 of YES

If EAG doesn't admit you that's an indictment of EAG, imo.

(fwiw I was also rejected on my first application, EAG London 2022)

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