Will 'Russia invades Ukraine' stay above 75% for at least an hour?
23
363
resolved Feb 23
Resolved
YES
Resolves YES if @Duncan's market "Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?" ( https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t ) stays at or above 75% for at least 60 minutes. The 60 minutes don't have to be contiguous. If the Duncan's market resolves early, I may resolve this market as soon as possible instead of waiting for an hour (since, presumably, the implied probability of a resolved market is not going to change). This question is inspired by https://manifold.markets/SG/will-russia-invades-ukraine-trade-a, but hopefully can't be gamed as easily. Feb 18, 10:31am: This market will resolve YES if Duncan's market resolves YES, regardless of it's implied probability at the time. This is not what I originally intended, but Gurkenglas convinced me that this way is better.
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bought Ṁ1 of NO
Hedging against 100% odds, lmao.
bought Ṁ300 of YES
Duncan's market resolved to YES https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t
sold Ṁ13 of NO
Somehow I made a mistake when I read this earlier, per what @Adam said, but yet I was able to sell at $M 13, basically profited $M 3 off my own idiocy somehow.
sold Ṁ62 of NO
never mind I didn't notice "Feb 18, 10:31am: This market will resolve YES if Duncan's market resolves YES"
bought Ṁ100 of NO
Patrick is right. Picking up free money assuming Yev doesn't defect.
bought Ṁ10 of NO
Yev's market here should resolve as, "NO" because Duncan's linked market never went above 66% as far as I can tell and trading on Duncan's linked market has been closed.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
The Yes if duncan resolves Yes rule makes this a boring market though! 96% and the remaining 4% is only due to lack of a whale yet.
sold Ṁ31 of NO
Leaving my arbitrage position between this market and https://manifold.markets/SG/will-russia-invades-ukraine-trade-a. This market really should be lower (assuming negligible probability that the original these are derivatives of doesn't resolve positive before it can be bought up to 75% (such that that one end up negative, but the escape clause is triggered for this one)), but I'm not confident I can profit from the fact that it isn't, for reasons related to @kjz 's objection, linked here: https://manifold.markets/kjz/will-manifolds-developers-agree-wit.
sold Ṁ15 of YES
Oh wait, this is probably NO if Duncan's market resolves YES before people update the price.

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