Will 'Russia invades Ukraine' stay above 75% for at least an hour?
23
100Ṁ13kresolved Feb 23
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if @Duncan's market "Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?" ( https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t ) stays at or above 75% for at least 60 minutes.
The 60 minutes don't have to be contiguous. If the Duncan's market resolves early, I may resolve this market as soon as possible instead of waiting for an hour (since, presumably, the implied probability of a resolved market is not going to change).
This question is inspired by https://manifold.markets/SG/will-russia-invades-ukraine-trade-a, but hopefully can't be gamed as easily.
Feb 18, 10:31am: This market will resolve YES if Duncan's market resolves YES, regardless of it's implied probability at the time. This is not what I originally intended, but Gurkenglas convinced me that this way is better.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ122 | |
| 2 | Ṁ83 | |
| 3 | Ṁ65 | |
| 4 | Ṁ52 | |
| 5 | Ṁ48 |
People are also trading
Related questions
By 2025 Jun, we will think "Ukraine is still taking significant ground, or has won" [Resolves to Poll]
14% chance
Will Putin's approval in Russia fall below 80% in 2025?
12% chance
[Metaculus] Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
28% chance
What is more likely to happen in the russian invasion of Ukraine by 2027