đ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | áš881 | |
| 2 | áš504 | |
| 3 | áš462 | |
| 4 | áš384 | |
| 5 | áš360 |
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Metaculus predicts 14%.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9939/kyiv-to-fall-to-russian-forces-by-april-2022/
This seems significant to me.
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1499967950975115269
This seems relatively high given that US officials have stated that US senators were briefed that it will take at least another week before Kyiv is fully encircled and around another 30 days until Kyiv is seized. This is along with news that those Russian columns trying to encircle Kyiv are literally running out of gas and Ukraine is bombing the supply convoys with Bayraktars.
Russia threatening nuclear attack is basically admitting that they lost.
My guess is that the resolve conditions of this market will be biased towards "no" (reluctance to acknowledge what is effective control b/c Russia is a Western adversary) but the reality on the ground will soon be a likely "yes."
I don't see how this is so high, I'd say 20% makes sense. I'd invest more but I want to bet on other things as well.
This war may be costly for Russia if Ukraine is putting up a fight. I could imagine Russia making peace and backing out, or fighting harder for certain territories closer to Russia instead of Kyiv.
It really depends on what "control Kiev" means. If the Ukranian Government does surrender before that and become a Russian puppet state, does this count?
Almost arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/CharlesVorbach/will-russia-enter-kiev-by-march-31s
A trader sold áš20 NO at 1.4%
A trader sold áš21 NO at 1.4%
A trader bought áš1,409 NO at 1.4%
A trader bought áš1,832 NO from 1.5% to 1.4%
A trader bought áš204 NO at 1.5%
A trader bought áš20 NO at 1.5%
A trader sold áš108 YES from 1.7% to 1.5%
A trader bought áš62 NO at 1.7%
A trader bought áš200 NO at 1.7%
A trader bought áš200 NO from 1.8% to 1.7%
A trader bought áš20 NO at 1.8%
A trader bought áš900 NO at 1.8%
A trader bought áš497 NO at 1.8%
A trader bought áš1,240 NO from 1.9% to 1.8%
A trader sold áš4 YES at 1.9%
A trader bought áš30 NO at 1.9%
A trader bought áš20 NO at 1.9%
A trader bought áš30 NO at 1.9%
A trader bought áš1,010 NO at 1.9%
A trader bought áš35 NO at 1.9%
A trader bought áš945 NO from 2.0% to 1.9%
A trader bought áš30 NO at 2.0%
A trader bought áš941 NO at 2.0%
A trader bought áš1,676 NO from 2% to 2.0%
A trader bought áš100 NO at 2%
A trader bought áš300 NO at 2%
A trader bought áš6,256 NO at 2%
A trader bought áš2,000 NO from 3% to 2%
A trader sold áš20 NO at 3%
A trader bought áš20 NO at 3%
A trader bought áš1,000 NO at 3%
A trader sold áš110 YES at 3%
A trader sold áš4 YES at 3%
A trader bought áš938 NO at 3%
A trader bought áš91 NO at 3%
A trader bought áš1,300 NO at 3%
A trader bought áš49 NO at 3%
A trader bought áš200 NO at 3%
A trader sold áš502 NO at 3%
A trader bought áš1,000 NO at 3%
A trader bought áš1,849 NO at 3%
A trader bought áš10 NO at 3%
A trader bought áš100 NO at 3%
A trader bought áš2,200 NO from 4% to 3%
A trader bought áš50 NO at 4%
A trader bought áš330 NO at 4%
A trader bought áš1,061 NO at 4%
A trader bought áš900 NO at 4%
A trader bought áš100 NO at 4%
A trader sold áš6 YES at 4%
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Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?75%
How many of the following cities, currently under Russian control, will be under Ukrainian control on June 22nd, 2023?1.5
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Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?75%
How many of the following cities, currently under Russian control, will be under Ukrainian control on June 22nd, 2023?1.5