Will Russia control Kyiv as of April 2, 2022?
resolved Apr 3

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PeterBerggren avatar
Peter Berggrenbought Ṁ50 of NO
Metaculus predicts 2.1%.
Yev avatar
Yevbought Ṁ20 of NO
Metaculus predicts 14%. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9939/kyiv-to-fall-to-russian-forces-by-april-2022/
CharlesVorbach avatar
Charles Vorbachbought Ṁ100 of NO
This seems significant to me. https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1499967950975115269
ArminVogel avatar
Armin Vogelbought Ṁ1,000 of NO
The Russians seem to be really struggling.
ConnerGagliano avatar
Conner Gaglianobought Ṁ370 of NO
This seems relatively high given that US officials have stated that US senators were briefed that it will take at least another week before Kyiv is fully encircled and around another 30 days until Kyiv is seized. This is along with news that those Russian columns trying to encircle Kyiv are literally running out of gas and Ukraine is bombing the supply convoys with Bayraktars.
TravisFergason avatar
Travis Fergasonbought Ṁ852 of NO
let's go!!!
PatrickDelaney avatar
Patrick Delaneybought Ṁ1 of NO
Russia threatening nuclear attack is basically admitting that they lost.
MiroFurtado avatar
Miro Furtadobought Ṁ80 of NO
My guess is that the resolve conditions of this market will be biased towards "no" (reluctance to acknowledge what is effective control b/c Russia is a Western adversary) but the reality on the ground will soon be a likely "yes."
colorednoise avatar
colorednoisebought Ṁ200 of NO
I don't see how this is so high, I'd say 20% makes sense. I'd invest more but I want to bet on other things as well.
JamesGrugett avatar
Jamesbought Ṁ100 of NO
This war may be costly for Russia if Ukraine is putting up a fight. I could imagine Russia making peace and backing out, or fighting harder for certain territories closer to Russia instead of Kyiv.
hagi avatar
hagisold Ṁ37 of YES
It really depends on what "control Kiev" means. If the Ukranian Government does surrender before that and become a Russian puppet state, does this count?
CharlesVorbach avatar
Charles Vorbachbought Ṁ100 of NO
I'm closer to 50% on this one.
Yev avatar
Yevbought Ṁ10 of NO
Almost arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/CharlesVorbach/will-russia-enter-kiev-by-march-31s

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