32. Will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high in 2023?
resolved Dec 29

This is question #32 in the Astral Codex Ten 2023 Prediction Contest. The contest rules and full list of questions are available here. Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten.

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predicted NO


sold Ṁ432 of YES

Bloomberg OVME is giving a 90% probability it closes below 4818 tomorrow. Just closed my position entirely.

predicted NO
predicted YES

@SirCryptomind It’s bogus to use the higher number when many people here bet on the assumption that 4796 ish was the target. How are we supposed to account for the use of the less obvious non-standard number?!? This is an obviously unfair decision.

Who else bet assuming the high would be the highest close instead of intraday??

@BTE this sounds like haterade that should be directed to Scott Alexander instead of those asking him the questions and relating the answers. Besides, market is going to the moon this week; trust me!

predicted NO

Scott does not run ACX Bot, he just makes the questions. The bot is run by a Manifold Staff Member.

predicted NO

@BTE Nobody on Metaculus has had any issues with the late clarification. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

predicted YES

Haterade, I love this! @AlQuinn To infinity and beyond!!!

@SirCryptomind I genuinely appreciate the effort you are putting in to track down the details and current info on these markets!!

predicted NO

@BTE why do you say it's "non-standard"?

predicted YES

@AndrewHebb What I mean is literally no journalist or market talking head is using the intraday high as the benchmark. The reference to it in the comments here is the first time I saw it after reading dozens of article on it the last week or so.

predicted NO

@BTE but the question isn't asking about the commonly used benchmark. It's asking about the all time high.

predicted YES

@AndrewHebb I was assuming the closing high was going to be what was used. Usually if you use the intraday high you specify it otherwise it’s assumed to be closing high.

predicted NO

@BTE Why would you assume it was the closing high if it didn't say that?

@BTE these markets of famous bloggers usually resolves however they decide their predictions have gone

predicted NO

@BTE with all due respect, you very often take liberal definitions on words in titles

predicted YES

@AndrewHebb Fair enough.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

Hey I'm just trying to do a coinflip guys, can you eat my limit order? It's at 42%

I bought it down from 50% to 42%, so you just need to correct me

predicted NO
bought Ṁ100 of YES

@SirCryptomind It’s a shame that literally nobody references that as the high. Not when you google it at least.

bought Ṁ23 of NO

@BTE Yea I understand. Had to email him just to get clarification to post to here and Metaculus.

But Scott doesn't run ACX, he just runs the contest, so he could not edit it anyways.

Last 13 hours of market trading for 2023 starts tomorrow
I put a small limit order of NO at 50% if anyone wants to snatch it up, expires 30 minutes before market open 12/29/2023 9:00:00 AM ET.

Last 19.5 hours of trading for 2023 to make Tax-loss harvesting trades, lots of selling.

(Tax-loss harvesting—offsetting capital gains with capital losses—can lower your tax bill and better position your portfolio going forward.)

predicted YES

@SirCryptomind I do TLH opportunistically throughout the year; doing it at year end seems less efficient

@AlQuinn I agree, do the same. I am just going off of 2020-2022, which is really not good measurements of TLH since we were in and coming out of covid and the whole WSB and meme crap.
I got some Nvidia and will either hold for 1 year or take TLH on it next year if it drops 10% or more to offset gains in Berkshire.

bought Ṁ317 of YES

This is a low volume trading week. Could easily happen. 35 is way low.