Will Russia invade Poland before the end of 2030?

Ṁ250Ṁ854

resolved Sep 15

Resolved

N/A

ALL

This resolves as yes in case of military invasion (troops or bombing by military). Economic, cyberwarfare, cultural etc actions are excluded. Russian army pretending to not be from the Russia (like in Crimea) is included. https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-russia-invade-poland-before-th may be of interest for short term ("Will Russia invade Poland before the end of June 2022?").

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Sorry, on review of what I am doing I decided to shutdown Manifold account. Resolving my markets as NA seems the fairest solution to people active on them.

- I decided to spend my time in a better way and Manifold is one of

things that I decided to eliminate in the ongoing owerview

- Daily bonus was effective, to the point of being scary, intrusive and

unwelcome

- Inability to block and hide unwanted markets/groups makes it

obnoxious to see some markets. Every time I read title of

https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-scott-alexander-write-an-acx-b

I die a bit inside and question what I am doing with my life

Yeah, something is screwy. $2 NO brought it back down from 97 to 2%.

@TANSTAAFL Strange. I definitely should not have been paid out as if this were a totally liquid market, but that' makes even less sense.

Just sold my whole stake and still probability barely budged. Went down only .5%. I did add $150 of liquidity right before closing my position so perhaps that accounts for the muted drop?