Will Scott Alexander write an ACX blog post containing the word "rationalussy" by the end of 2023?
139
777
1.6K
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if Scott writes a blog post on ACX that includes the word "rationalussy" by the end of 2023. Images, twitter embeds, manifold embeds, etc count. Comments do not count.

EDIT 2022-12-21: Guest posts do not count either.

Inspired by this market:

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ1,728
2Ṁ1,534
3Ṁ315
4Ṁ302
5Ṁ293
Sort by:
bought Ṁ207 of NO

"ACX will return to its normal posting schedule in January.…of 2042."

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-the-long-run-were-all-dad

sold Ṁ226 of NO

@ScottAlexander Here's your opportunity for a free 5000 mana!

bought Ṁ10 YES at 7%
bought Ṁ10 NO at 8%
bought Ṁ25 of YES

Scott writes a prediction market post every few weeks and you think this won't come up?

bought Ṁ0 of NO
predicted YES

Related

I've relisted this because its acceptable content.

predicted NO

@Sinclair Sure, but I think listing markets on the home page should be partly based on whether a market is "home page content".

predicted YES

@Sinclair Everone needz 2 see our rationalussy

predicted YES
bought Ṁ10 of YES

@Spindle I see ur rationalussy

bought Ṁ25 of YES
predicted NO

I personally love joke markets, but many of our users do not. I have decided to unlist this market (making it not visible from the homepage by default), partially in response to this comment: https://manifold.markets/M/will-the-moscow-stock-market-mostly-c1f79ba5316f#1Hz6NO5rxfYKuAsG9Fqx

predicted NO

@SG In the future, Manifold will be better at automatically surfacing the exact content users want to see, making explicit moderation decisions like these moot.

@SG To be clear, I have no problem with such markets. Just that I really dislike situation where I am exposed to something that I do not want to see and I cannot hide it from myself.

And this was rather final straw, together with noticing that daily bonus effect was frighteningly effective in my case - that triggered my "wait, why I am spending time on that"

predicted NO

@Accountdeletionrequested Please share your wisdom: https://manifold.markets/links Thank you!

predicted NO

@Accountdeletionrequested Yes, I understand where you're coming from.

predicted NO

@kazoo lol. No sense letting a good tragedy go to waste!

predicted NO

@SG i worry for inflation, maybe to keep economy! :)

predicted YES

@SG UR R JUZT AFRAID OF WHAT U HAVE UNLEASHED

omg this is just like Gorge Orwell's Animal Crossing

next thing you know @SG will get banned ;-;

@Accountdeletionrequested I feel you re. The streak bonus, I hate it. It also means I can't immediately assess my performance by looking at my portfolio value, because some of that is just streak bonus. I'm now deliberately not betting on consecutive days to avoid the bonuses.

@MichaelBennett This one is mostly solved by profit graph.

But in turn, my feeling is that profit/income is dominated by "have I bet against people with insane predictions". And therefore not by my prediction skill but my ability to spot people making clearly dumb bets (see that trump person and spindle).

Which is not actually so useful, and unlike ability to predict things is not something even potentially useful to me.

@Accountdeletionrequested My plan on joining M was to check how well I do on predicting stuff (and if it turns I am really bad maybe occasionally purchase some funds, why not).

Instead it turned out to be dominated by guessing whether market author is trustworthy. From what I remember I made most of income on guessing that some specific Trump market will be handled fraudulently. And in general on spotting insane/trolling people.

And of all things in my life - being more involved with trolls and madman is last thing I need.

-------------

Metaculus is also bad, making more predictions or sinking massive amount of time in updating based on newsfeed is more valuable than making good predictions.

-------------

For real money market - everything is illegal or requires BTC or ETH or variants. And I am not interested in "how I will be scammed by getting involved in cryptocurrency ecosystem" game.

Sorry for a rant.

Hopefully it will be useful for someone. I hope that M is going well for others and they get fun/utility/money from it!

predicted NO

Yeah, having to constantly check the market creator's profile and hedge against an improper resolution is a bit of a drain. We really need some sort of reputation system that displays next to their name so users can tell at a glance.

predicted NO

@Accountdeletionrequested I think if markets resolved trades over an hour or day then it would put less pressure on being first to spot an "insane" trade, but then it loses the instant gratification of placing bets and seeing the chart move. Tough problem.

predicted NO

@Accountdeletionrequested before delete, please share account transaction I have requested: https://manifold.markets/links

predicted NO

@kazoo I think it's fine to ask once, but bugging people multiple times to give you free money seems a little rude. Also, @Accountdeletionrequested can send that money to a charity they support, which I expect they'd likely find to be a better use of it.

predicted NO

@IsaacKing looking at this rationalussy {ok} but I must ask it !

predicted NO

@IsaacKing A no begging rule seems like a good addition to the community guidelines.

predicted NO

@MartinRandall is it begging if asking ? maybe a bet to settle it !

predicted NO

@kazoo Are you offering to bet on whether @Accountdeletionrequested ends up giving you their mana? I might take you up on that. :)