1,000
3.00"ACX will return to its normal posting schedule in January.…of 2042."
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-the-long-run-were-all-dad
Scott writes a prediction market post every few weeks and you think this won't come up?
@Sinclair Sure, but I think listing markets on the home page should be partly based on whether a market is "home page content".
I personally love joke markets, but many of our users do not. I have decided to unlist this market (making it not visible from the homepage by default), partially in response to this comment: https://manifold.markets/M/will-the-moscow-stock-market-mostly-c1f79ba5316f#1Hz6NO5rxfYKuAsG9Fqx
@SG In the future, Manifold will be better at automatically surfacing the exact content users want to see, making explicit moderation decisions like these moot.
@SG To be clear, I have no problem with such markets. Just that I really dislike situation where I am exposed to something that I do not want to see and I cannot hide it from myself.
And this was rather final straw, together with noticing that daily bonus effect was frighteningly effective in my case - that triggered my "wait, why I am spending time on that"
@Accountdeletionrequested Please share your wisdom: https://manifold.markets/links Thank you!
@Accountdeletionrequested I feel you re. The streak bonus, I hate it. It also means I can't immediately assess my performance by looking at my portfolio value, because some of that is just streak bonus. I'm now deliberately not betting on consecutive days to avoid the bonuses.
@MichaelBennett This one is mostly solved by profit graph.
But in turn, my feeling is that profit/income is dominated by "have I bet against people with insane predictions". And therefore not by my prediction skill but my ability to spot people making clearly dumb bets (see that trump person and spindle).
Which is not actually so useful, and unlike ability to predict things is not something even potentially useful to me.
@Accountdeletionrequested My plan on joining M was to check how well I do on predicting stuff (and if it turns I am really bad maybe occasionally purchase some funds, why not).
Instead it turned out to be dominated by guessing whether market author is trustworthy. From what I remember I made most of income on guessing that some specific Trump market will be handled fraudulently. And in general on spotting insane/trolling people.
And of all things in my life - being more involved with trolls and madman is last thing I need.
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Metaculus is also bad, making more predictions or sinking massive amount of time in updating based on newsfeed is more valuable than making good predictions.
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For real money market - everything is illegal or requires BTC or ETH or variants. And I am not interested in "how I will be scammed by getting involved in cryptocurrency ecosystem" game.
Sorry for a rant.
Hopefully it will be useful for someone. I hope that M is going well for others and they get fun/utility/money from it!
@Accountdeletionrequested I think if markets resolved trades over an hour or day then it would put less pressure on being first to spot an "insane" trade, but then it loses the instant gratification of placing bets and seeing the chart move. Tough problem.
@Accountdeletionrequested before delete, please share account transaction I have requested: https://manifold.markets/links
@kazoo I think it's fine to ask once, but bugging people multiple times to give you free money seems a little rude. Also, @Accountdeletionrequested can send that money to a charity they support, which I expect they'd likely find to be a better use of it.
@kazoo Are you offering to bet on whether @Accountdeletionrequested ends up giving you their mana? I might take you up on that. :)