Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?
24
2.0k
2028
17%
chance

This market resolves YES if at any time before 2028, Russian military forces invade a country with NATO membership. Otherwise, it resolves NO.

I do not think these words necessitate hair-splitting, as I am setting up this market in good faith and trust that people in the near future are still able to negotiate the proper meanings of e.g. 'military forces' and 'invasion' in this particular context. But I am happy to clarify any edge cases that people can come up with. If so, I will update the description accordingly.

Some points:

  • Cyberattacks can be acts of war and may even be considered to be armed attacks, but I do not consider them to be invasions for the purpose of this market.

  • I will not bet in this market.

  • If the Russian Federation were to dissolve, the actions of Russia or any obvious successor state would count in lieu of those of the RF. Without an obvious successor state, the market resolves N/A.

This market was inspired by the following Twitter thread:

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MercurialGuesserboughtṀ50NO

Will you resolve to ‘no‘ if NATO countries have been bombed, but not invaded?