Will Russia launch a military invasion of a NATO country by 2033?
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Which country will Russia invade? @ukaszBartoszcze

bought Ṁ24 YES

@LeonardoKr that's a different question from the one here :)

@ukaszBartoszcze oh it is. But anyone betting yes here must have at least a probability distribution regarding which of the member states will be invaded as there is no country named nato :)

@LeonardoKr The most likely scenario I see is ł: ceasefire, Ukraine joins NATO, Ukraine gets attacked again

bought Ṁ5 YES

@ukaszBartoszcze I am pretty sure that is why Russia decided not to ceasefire.

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