Will Russia annex either Abkhazia or South Ossetia before 2030?
17
Ṁ1kṀ4292030
35%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Abkhazia and South Ossetia are two partially recognized states that have been occupied by Russian forces since the Russo-Georgian War of 2008.
Will Russia annex either Abkhazia or South Ossetia before 2030?
See also:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?
25% chance
Will Russia be invaded by foreign troops [>10000] before 2060?
40% chance
Will Russia control at least 85% of the four annexed oblasts at the end of October 2026?
45% chance
Will Russia annex Belarus until 2030?
22% chance
Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?
45% chance
Will there be a second Russia-Georgia war by 2030?
9% chance
Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?
18% chance
Will China annex any portion of Russia/Siberia by 2035?
20% chance
Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030?
32% chance
Will Russia formally cede Crimea before 2030?
7% chance
Sort by:
@mattyb This question is not conditional. If Russia annexes either Abkhazia or South Ossetia before 2030, under Putin or any other leader, it resolves YES, otherwise resolves NO 1 Jan 2030.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?
25% chance
Will Russia be invaded by foreign troops [>10000] before 2060?
40% chance
Will Russia control at least 85% of the four annexed oblasts at the end of October 2026?
45% chance
Will Russia annex Belarus until 2030?
22% chance
Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?
45% chance
Will there be a second Russia-Georgia war by 2030?
9% chance
Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?
18% chance
Will China annex any portion of Russia/Siberia by 2035?
20% chance
Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030?
32% chance
Will Russia formally cede Crimea before 2030?
7% chance