Will Hezbollah directly engage in combat operations against Israel?

"Direct combat operations" means a sustained combat effort; special operations don't count.

Will resolve at end of current conflict, or extend if conflict doesn't end by time of closure.

Will resolve if confirmed by reliable media source (Reuters, BBC, the AP, etc.)

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In Lebanon currently betting on my fate

@Nilah stay safe

@ShakedKoplewitz Tbh the prevailing mood of the people here seem very calm. That may be due to trauma or acceptance of reality that is out of their control.

@Nilah yeah... My impression of Lebanon is that Hezbollah is genuinely pretty unrepresentative and most people there don't especially want to pick a war (unlike in Gaza), but don't have much control over Hezbollah which is Iran-armed and trained. (TBH would appreciate any insight from the ground)

@Nilah Stay safe.

@ShakedKoplewitz It probably helps that people in South Lebanon see on their TV screens what happened in Gaza. Hopefully that's some good deterrence. No one wants that to happen to Lebanon. I hope a war can be avoided.

@nathanwei Same. Thanks

@ShakedKoplewitz Just talked with a friend who lives in Deir Mimas (the south) that had witnessed the shelling/bombings. He said things haven’t seem to have escalated since the Iranian retaliation. But many of the olive groves are being bombed.

I talked with my neighbors (I live in a Christian neighborhood in Beirut). They seemed not overly concerned as mentioned they believe that if Beirut is targeted, it would most likely and only affect Dahiye as what happened in 2006 as well as some infrastructure.

@Nilah Their observations *

@ShakedKoplewitz We also usually emails from the US embassy which helps gauge the situation as we received a email April 13 as a reminder of caution prior to the Iranian strikes on the 19th.

bought Ṁ50 YES


What is the difference between a 'special operation' and a direct engagement?

Is "Full-scale operation" equivalent to "Special Operation"

@Blomfilter very reckless use of “full-scale operation” lol. It’s literally just airstrikes, nothing full-scale about it.

bought Ṁ400 NO

@NADZOR it's Mario nawfal lol. If you literally just take whatever he says and then reverse it, you would have the most accurate super forecaster of all time.

@SemioticRivalry Went to Reuters after reading the attached tweet. After reading the article, opened Twitter and blocked the guy. Absolutely reckless, shameless attention-seeking clickbaiter. Hadn’t heard of him before; glad I won’t be hearing of him further.

Heating up again

sold Ṁ162 NO

Northern border attacks keep escalating. I thought Hezbollah would launch a few to show solidarity and gradually taper off, but they seem uninterested in deescalating and with a hundred thousand internal refugees Israel may eventually decide to take the fight to them once Gaza's done.


Lebanese Al-Akhbar (Hezbollah-affiliated) from diplomatic sources:

Israel informed the Western countries that it had set an ultimatum to reach a political agreement with Lebanon by March 15. If an agreement is not reached, it is preparing to escalate military activity in Lebanon into a full-scale war.

@ICRainbow I feel like that site gave me malware. Anyway, Israel is denying elsewhere:

"If an agreement was not reached by that point, according to the pro-Hezbollah newspaper, Israel would ramp up its military operations against the terrorist factions on its northern border to the point of a full-scale war. However, an Israeli official later denied the report of a deadline to Hebrew-language media."


@ICRainbow https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-said-to-deny-lebanese-report-on-march-15-war-ultimatum/ IDF denies this. No highly credible source seems to be reporting on the March 15 ultimatum based on quick googling.

@NADZOR By sustained combat effort, do you mean war?

@GazDownright More or less. There has to be a continuing combat effort that seeks to achieve a certain goal; no need for an official declaration of war. I used this wording to avoid language games/edge technical scenarios that would cause controversy (ex: Israel moves into southern Lebanon to fight Hezbollah and establish some kind of security border/clampdown but calls it a “special operation” or something. A situation like this would resolve YES. Relatively minor/isolated artillery exchanges/skirmishes/airstrikes etc would not count as “sustained” combat “efforts.”)

@NADZOR I see. Is there anything in the resolution criteria hinging on the wording 'Hezbollah against Israel,' and not the other way around? Or will any sustained combat, regardless of perceived instigator, resolve to yes? Just asking for sake of clarity.

@GazDownright Nope, the initiator doesn’t matter, as the other party will be engaging in their own combat operation with the goal of preventing the other side from achieving their objective. Good question though.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Statements from Hezbollah, Israel, and the US indicate that neither Israel nor Hezbollah want to go to war.

predicts YES

@Arky market goes until 2026 so time will tell

predicts NO

@shankypanky The market creator has indicated that the market resolves when Israel's conflict with Hamas ends. Israel is already starting to withdraw troops from Northern Gaza.

predicts YES

@Arky ah right true. time will still tell 😅

@Arky "Israel is already starting to withdraw its troops from northern Gaza". This is just the end of the high-intensity phase in certain neighborhoods. They have destroyed all the organized resistance but not all the Hamas elements and small cells; the "cleaning" phase to deal with them will last for many months.

@Arky @ersatz If not years. “Low-intensity” conflict =/= “almost peace,” just a different kind of war.

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