"Direct combat operations" means a sustained combat effort; special operations don't count.
Will resolve at end of current conflict, or extend if conflict doesn't end by time of closure.
Will resolve if confirmed by reliable media source (Reuters, BBC, the AP, etc.)
Related questions
https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1783133397000355950
What is the difference between a 'special operation' and a direct engagement?
Is "Full-scale operation" equivalent to "Special Operation"
@Blomfilter very reckless use of “full-scale operation” lol. It’s literally just airstrikes, nothing full-scale about it.
@NADZOR it's Mario nawfal lol. If you literally just take whatever he says and then reverse it, you would have the most accurate super forecaster of all time.
@SemioticRivalry Went to Reuters after reading the attached tweet. After reading the article, opened Twitter and blocked the guy. Absolutely reckless, shameless attention-seeking clickbaiter. Hadn’t heard of him before; glad I won’t be hearing of him further.
https://abualiexpress.com/en/en23764/
Lebanese Al-Akhbar (Hezbollah-affiliated) from diplomatic sources:
Israel informed the Western countries that it had set an ultimatum to reach a political agreement with Lebanon by March 15. If an agreement is not reached, it is preparing to escalate military activity in Lebanon into a full-scale war.
@ICRainbow I feel like that site gave me malware. Anyway, Israel is denying elsewhere:
"If an agreement was not reached by that point, according to the pro-Hezbollah newspaper, Israel would ramp up its military operations against the terrorist factions on its northern border to the point of a full-scale war. However, an Israeli official later denied the report of a deadline to Hebrew-language media."
@ICRainbow https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-said-to-deny-lebanese-report-on-march-15-war-ultimatum/ IDF denies this. No highly credible source seems to be reporting on the March 15 ultimatum based on quick googling.
@GazDownright More or less. There has to be a continuing combat effort that seeks to achieve a certain goal; no need for an official declaration of war. I used this wording to avoid language games/edge technical scenarios that would cause controversy (ex: Israel moves into southern Lebanon to fight Hezbollah and establish some kind of security border/clampdown but calls it a “special operation” or something. A situation like this would resolve YES. Relatively minor/isolated artillery exchanges/skirmishes/airstrikes etc would not count as “sustained” combat “efforts.”)
@NADZOR I see. Is there anything in the resolution criteria hinging on the wording 'Hezbollah against Israel,' and not the other way around? Or will any sustained combat, regardless of perceived instigator, resolve to yes? Just asking for sake of clarity.
@GazDownright Nope, the initiator doesn’t matter, as the other party will be engaging in their own combat operation with the goal of preventing the other side from achieving their objective. Good question though.
Statements from Hezbollah, Israel, and the US indicate that neither Israel nor Hezbollah want to go to war.
@shankypanky The market creator has indicated that the market resolves when Israel's conflict with Hamas ends. Israel is already starting to withdraw troops from Northern Gaza.
@Arky "Israel is already starting to withdraw its troops from northern Gaza". This is just the end of the high-intensity phase in certain neighborhoods. They have destroyed all the organized resistance but not all the Hamas elements and small cells; the "cleaning" phase to deal with them will last for many months.
@ersatz retaliation, maybe. But it's not like they have the same extensive "metro" coverage under Israel?
@ersatz HZ has a home field advantage, making defence viable (?). But attacking the other side is a whole different story. Esp with USA cavalry close by or at least dropping on their heads on short notice.
@ICRainbow I have no idea what you are trying to say but if it’s related to Hezbollah attacking Israel they have no expectation of defeating Israel's military, it’s a Shia jihadist terrorist organization and an Iranian proxy, they just want to kill as many Israelis as they can and expect to survive in case of war by hiding among their own civilians.