Will Poland overtake UK in GDP per capita by 2050?
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11
227
2053
35%
chance

Using IMF nominal, non-PPP adjusted GDP per capita in USD. For 2021, Poland was 23,014 and the UK’s 51,075.

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how it will be resolved in case if Scotland leaves UK by that date?

@ed It’s per capita so unlikely to affect it much right?

@ukaszBartoszcze ofc it will affect it since scotland has huge oil revenue ...

@ed rough calc: according to IMF data, Scottish GDP per capita including oil revenue is $48k, UK average is $51k. So if anything, Scotland leaving would increase nominal GDP per capita but as I said, since the difference is small, unlikely to be a factor

@ukaszBartoszcze those calculations are based on the assumption that everything else remains the same. We do not take into account what types of economic activity would be disrupted with those steps. When a country dissociates from some association or larger country, both remain weaker. That is what happened with brexit (https://www.bbc.com/news/business-59070020 ); who knows about northern ireland besides scotland as well .. .. .

@ed Not necessarily. Singapore left Malaysia and what happened?

@ukaszBartoszcze ok, poland will be number 1

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