Will Russia launch a military attack against Poland by the end of 2039?
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Inspired by @XYZ_RGB's question, thank you making the example.
Resolves YES if Russia exerts kinetic military action in the territory of Poland by December 31st, 2029. "Kinetic military action" excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources. It includes shooting projectiles, and deploying troops or military vehicles inside Poland.
We will ignore accidents with stray missiles such as this one.
Resolves NO in 2040-Jan if no kinetic military attack happens.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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