Inspired by @XYZ_RGB's question, thank you making the example.
Resolves YES if Russia exerts kinetic military action in the territory of Poland by December 31st, 2029. "Kinetic military action" excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources. It includes shooting projectiles, and deploying troops or military vehicles inside Poland.
We will ignore accidents with stray missiles such as this one.
Resolves NO in 2040-Jan if no kinetic military attack happens.
@Thomas42 Good question. In general: if we're confident they're part of the Russian Federation military, and they're armed, and we're confident they have something to do with invasive **operations, then I'm guessing we count them.
@ScroogeMcDuck **I should say invasive intentions or goals, rather than "invasive maneuvers" which seems more specific. I just mean if they are clearly part of some effort to occupy, then they count.