https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/colorado-trump-14th-amendment-12-19-23/index.html
He has until Jan 4 to appeal if he wants to be on the ballot. Will he do it before Jan 1?
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The Colorado GOP appealed. I am not counting this as YES as the question says "Will Donald Trump..." and Trump still plans to issue his own appeal. 2 more days
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/colorado-republican-party-appeal-u-s-supreme-court-trump-ballot-ban/
I think we are getting to the point where people should start betting NO. Half the time remaining is in 2024, after the market resolves.
93% seems too high.
@OllieG this market is kind of fun but it's mostly gambling on timeline.
This other market I made is more technically interesting if you want to add it.
https://manifold.markets/GCS/will-the-us-supreme-court-agree-wit