Nov 6

Given the recent unsealing of the FBI warrant on Trump and that he’s being investigated under 18 U.S.C. § 2071, there are two paths to him being disqualified to run for office: Congress votes to bar him from running under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, or the House impeaches him and the Senate convicts, and then votes to bar him from running again as per Section 3 of Article 1 of the US Constitution. , or he is found guilty under section 2071 (I am not a lawyer so I may be missing some other path).

Resolves to YES if Trump is legally eligible to run for president in 2024 (irrespective of if he does run), NO if he can't run.

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Great first order question, Treldman! For clarification of Colorado voters, if Trump is struck from their ballot, will your Q still resolve yes, since he can be written in?


The question asks ineligible to run but not ineligible to hold office… which I think is different.

Not to be morbid, but how does this resolve if Trump dies? (The literal wording would seem to imply NO. I'm a bit surprised nobody has asked this: I haven't found the right kind of actuarial tables but given Trump's age the probability would seem to be high enough to have a significant effect on this market...)

predicts YES

I just realized that the description is opposite of the title. I imagine this is a mistake?

@MartinRandall yep, mistake, thank you for pointing this out.

Completely unconstitutional. Might get one vote because Sotomayor isn’t very smart, but otherwise it’s very basic that Congress cannot dictate further requirements to run for President.

The Fourteenth Amendment is the only path (“insurrection”), hence why randos wandering around and taking pictures while Trump “did nothing” was being played up to go that route.

@Gigacasting Section 3 of the 14th Amendment gives Congress the power to disqualify someone from office if they participate in an "insurrection or rebellion", which would be up to Congress to decide. However, it isn't the only path. Anyone found guilty under 18 U.S.C. § 2071 is disqualified from holding office in the United States.

predicts YES

(that’s not how it works, you don’t get to “pass laws” changing who can run for President)

@Gigacasting Actually did some reading and you're right, the only path is through Congress voting under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.

Going to leave this market up anyway and edit the description to clarify.

@Treldman There are two paths. He can also be impeached again. It doesn't require him to be in office currently to be impeached for high crimes and misdemeanors while in office.

@BTE No, because impeachment is simply the charging of a crime by the House. It doesn't do anything until the Senate votes to convict (in which case they then can issue the punishment of disqualification from office). That being said, will update the description again lol

@Treldman The Senate could do that is what I am saying. It is not impossible, if unthinkable. So there are two ways.

@Treldman I don't think there is a requirement that the Senate convict him to vote him ineligible following an impeachment trial. Like they can acquit him and then vote separately to disqualify him, they do not need to be done together. This came up during the last impeachment.

@BTE That's not my reading of Article 1, Section 3, clause 7. Disqualification is a punishment that can be meted out to those found guilty by the Senate. From my understanding, Congress cannot bar someone for running for president under Article 1, Section 3, if they have been acquitted.

@BTE Not the only path by which Trump is disqualified

@Treldman I know, just putting it here for hedging.

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