Resolves N/A if /DanMan314/will-scotus-reverse-the-colorado-su resolves NO. Otherwise resolves identically to /duck/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres.
In other words (I’m pretty sure…), resolves N/A if Trump is barred from the ballot by SCOTUS, otherwise resolves based on Trump winning the Presidency.
Related questions
This is now equivalent to the linked market on Trump winning. Arb away!
@KevinBurke It is about the Presidency (it resolves identically to the 2024 market linked in description)
Is there something I can change about title/description to make it clearer?
@JoshuaB That’s assuming Trump has a 0% chance of winning if SCOTUS rules against him? Isn’t it possible he’s only barred from the ballot in blue states so it has no impact?
@ahalekelly Sure, it is.
I assumed that any affirming decision would necessarily rule that Trump is Constitutionally ineligible to be President, which seems to preclude him winning the election. It’d be groovy to know if that’s an unreasonable assumption.