Will Trump win the Presidency in 2024, now that SCOTUS has reversed the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision?
71
571
2.9k
2025
49%
chance

Resolves N/A if /DanMan314/will-scotus-reverse-the-colorado-su resolves NO. Otherwise resolves identically to /duck/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres.

In other words (I’m pretty sure…), resolves N/A if Trump is barred from the ballot by SCOTUS, otherwise resolves based on Trump winning the Presidency.

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This is now equivalent to the linked market on Trump winning. Arb away!

This is now equivalent to the linked market on Trump winning. Arb away!

specifically is this about winning Colorado or everything

predicts NO

@KevinBurke It is about the Presidency (it resolves identically to the 2024 market linked in description)

Is there something I can change about title/description to make it clearer?

bought Ṁ50 of NO

One would expect this market to trade at Trump Winning/Trump On Ballot, or as of comment time, 0.42/0.88 =0.477. I have some decent NO limit orders at 45 and 46, to incentivize traders to make the market more rational

@JoshuaB That’s assuming Trump has a 0% chance of winning if SCOTUS rules against him? Isn’t it possible he’s only barred from the ballot in blue states so it has no impact?

predicts NO

@ahalekelly Sure, it is.

I assumed that any affirming decision would necessarily rule that Trump is Constitutionally ineligible to be President, which seems to preclude him winning the election. It’d be groovy to know if that’s an unreasonable assumption.

predicts NO
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