Will Trump appear on the general election ballot in Colorado in the 2024 presidential election?
24
174
1k
Nov 16
96%
chance

Resolves YES if Trump is on the Colorado general election ballot for US President in the 2024 election, otherwise NO.

So, this is based on if he's in the race (wins Republican nomination or runs as an independent or whatever) and if he's allowed on the Colorado ballot.

Context: Trump is ineligible for office under 14th Amendment’s ‘insurrectionist ban,’ Colorado Supreme Court rules - this decision is being appealed to the US Supreme Court.

Examples to clarify:

  • If he's deemed ineligible but he is on the ballot, that's still a YES. This might theoretically happen if he's ruled ineligible but such ruling happens after the ballots have been finalized.

  • If he's on the ballot, but drops out after the ballots have been finalized, that's also still a YES.

  • If he is not on the ballot, but is eligible for write-in votes, that's still a NO.

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The title and description are pretty clear, but just to clarify: this is not regarding the primary election, but is instead the general election held in November?

A part of this market would then rely upon if he wins the primary or somehow runs independently? If he is eligible to be on the ballet but is not the winner of the primary, he would not appear on the ballet.

Am I thinking incorrectly here? Thanks for creating this market.

predicts YES

@Dustin @jack I’m going off the “Context” section here to assume that we’re talking about legality tied to the SC decision.

@mattyb I think so too, but that decision was regarding the primary election if I’m not mistaken.

predicts YES

@Dustin Yes, it is resolving based on the general election ballot. General election specifically means not the primary.

Yeah, you are correct that the primary results or a decision to run independently matter here, this isn't just about 14th amendment. Sorry for any confusion, I duplicated my primary market to make this one. Will add some more context.

predicts YES

To be clear, the context here is just context. The title and resolution criteria are clear.