Resolves on inauguration day [January 20th, 2025] to whoever gets inaugurated. However, if the winner is called by AP and the challenger(s) concede, that is sufficient to resolve this market.
If none of these six people is the winner of the US presidential election, this market will be cancelled and all trades reversed. It is not possible to add new options (Like Kamala Harris) to this market.
Please refer to this other market for the full, unconditional odds:
Related questions
I think it should NA regardless of whether it's one of the people listed. Otherwise it amounts to interpreting the question as "conditional that the winner is one of the people listed ...", which doesn't agree with how the question was written or how people would have interpreted their bets (e.g. I bet NO on Biden because the market prob for him felt too high, but his conditional prob wasn't) -- and it also screws up scoring for short-term bets (buy then sell off your position before it resolves).
I agree with Timothy Johnson. We should try not to N/A questions. Especially now with Biden 70% to win the nomination.
Taylor Swift for president:
https://manifold.markets/HarrisonLucas/taylor-swift-runs-for-president-of
Warning for new traders: This market lacks some probable options; notably, Kamala Harris. This means the market probability doesn't correctly correspond to the probabilities of each option winning the election. I recommend that you trade on other equivalent (but not broken) markets instead, such as this one:
if he boosts it again will unlisted prevent it from being displayed? I think this gets views because of boosts
edit: seems like you can't boost unlisted questions! good!
Bet or vote on what to do
https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/what-should-we-do-with-the-presiden?r=S2V2aW5CdXJrZQ
I think this market would be vastly improved with a couple small changes to help make sure traders' expectations are not fooled by the small pool of candidates:
The title should explicitly mention that there is only a select pool of candidates listed.
The title and/or description should specify how the market resolves if none of these candidates wins.
Without changes like this, I think this market is going to cause confusion for users. I think my favorite suggestion is to change the title to something more like "Which of the listed candidates will win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (N/A if other)", and also add a note in the description about that.
It seems like in most cases this is expected to play out in a straightforward manner, but there are certainly potential outcomes where one candidate in this market is at 90% while he's at ~50% in a different market. And other weird stuff.
@getby what do you think? I know there is a mechanism where Manifold is able to 'take control' of markets if they think they need it, but it isn't used super often.
@Irigi this is now at least the third time this question has been asked. Creator seems to be (mostly) inactive. At what point do we need to seek moderator input?
Can we tell whether it's even possible to add more options to this market? Is NA the only option?
@Fion in markets where more options can be added there's always an "other" option. This market doesn't have one, so we can deduce that it is impossible to add more options.
@Fion in markets where more options can be added there's always an "other" option. This market doesn't have one, so we can deduce that it is impossible to add more options.
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