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The hot CPI forcing bonds up and tanking the market plus Iran possibly striking Israel and sending up oil prices/possible recession seem to help Trump more than the Arizona abortion situation helps Biden.
Taking my profit from the ramp up from previous negative sentiment against Trump’s chances. I don’t see this going higher than uncertainty without a black swan event. I thought it would be inevitable that Trump would be the mainstream candidate for the GOP but now that we are here I don’t know what will happen next.
@PatrickDelaney The labor market is deteriorating fast from surveys such as NFIB, Kansas City Fed, JOLTS, NY Fed, ISM, and Household Employment BLS survey
@riverwalk3 Found one that I think you're talking about...? https://www.kansascityfed.org/LMCI/documents/10035/lmci_031224.pdf
@AaronKreider for sure, but one could consider to resolve this question as N/A and that was my question 😉
I don't know if he'll actually win, but I suspect something will happen as the campaign goes along that will make his probability of winning at least temporarily seem much higher, so there's still profit to be had in this market at the current probability, even if ~25% is probably a realistic estimate for him actually winning in the end. Basically, as with all things Trump, bet on volatility.
I hate to say this but it needs to be said. The fact that Trump has been indicted on Federal charges helps him. Based upon actuarial tables: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html ... the probability of dying at age 78 (Trump's age next year) vs. 81.5 (Biden's age next year) is around 1.5 times less, as aging is highly exponential at upper ages. This will lead to a Harris vs. Trump situation, even if Biden is on the campaign trail and ostensibly running, it will effectively be Trump vs. Harris, which is like saying Trump vs. SuperHillary. There is nothing likable about Harris at all, she's basically a cop to left-wing ACAB people, and she's a "muslim," Obama (e.g. Satan, meaning, a threat to white supremacy) to Republicans, and I say this as someone who, Harris was my favorite candidate in 2020 (I know, I'm lame). But what about Desantis? I'm sorry, the age of Desantis is over now that Trump has been indicted. He can't whip people up into a frenzy like Trump can, he constantly treads lightly around Trump for fear of reprisal, he truly is, "Meatball Ron," to Republicans, using that pseudo-racial epithet to deride him is extremely effective to the fascist-christian base...he's catholic, Italian (and therefore somehow not quite perfectly white or at the top of the imagined racial hierarchy on a basal ganglia level). People have forgotten 2022, it's ancient history. It's going to be a bloodbath and the end of America and I am not looking forward to it.
No one's as hated as Hillary. Maybe Dick Cheney.
Harris is scum; she's a prosecutor (so evil by default) who literally made her name hunting harmless sex workers and putting the ones she didn't catch in more danger by breaking Backpage (and then later, pushing for FOSTA and SESTA) - there's only one category of crimes she could have pursued that would make her worse, and that's drug possession. The liberals hate her as much as the leftists.
And yet, if it's against Trump again - they'll line up. And hope somebody assassinates her before Election Day, possibly. But they'll show up.
@JiSK agreed, I think it's common opinion among Democrats and possibly moderates too that if Trump wins it's literally the end of democracy
Everyone's head is full of Trump and Biden because that's what's in the news. But we don't even know who will be running, in either primary! (Look at history, we never know that this early in the cycle).
On the R side: once DeSantis announces he will run, that will break the ice for it to be "okay" for R's to run against Trump. Then the flood gates will open and a dozen rando candidates will appear out of nowhere. ~75% that one of them will be the nominee, not Trump or DeSantis.
@Madeofmeat Right about the dozen randos, wrong about them beating trump. Candidates that have already won an election almost always win nomination even if they’re unpopular.
@Madeofmeat Donald Trump running against a dozen randos is how he got the Republican nomination for 2016. If the Republican party used ranked choice voting in its primary, then Donald Trump never would have gotten nominated.
@JiSK You think? He seems highly probable to announce for candidacy, and he's still got a massive following with the base. Any republican who manages to seriously challenge him in the primary can expect significant negative consequences to their political career if they fail to do so successfully, which is the most likely outcome still.
So, given he's quite likely to win the nomination, the incumbent he's most likely to face is historically unpopular (even more than he was). He is definitely more than 33% likely to win that contest (the replacement ballot isn't far from 50/50 on that one right now iirc). So the current probability translates to believing that he's only a 2:1 bet for the nomination.
Honestly, I guess that seems roughly accurate, though I'd probably bet a bit higher on his taking the nomination (maybe as high as 3:1?).
And I think Biden looks mostly the same. The most likely option seems to be they face each other - I'm not sure if the outside view there is the replacement ballot or the fact that Trump lost the last one. Probably the replacement ballot, though.
But I actually think both of them are probably a bit less electable than replacement - I would definitely put more money down on NO after the primaries to bet against the survivor if only one of them secures their nomination.
@EnopoletusHarding With Trump as opposing candidate dead cat would have a decent chance.
Even worse candidates, like Biden, have a real chance.
And that is on assumption that it will be Biden vs Trump what is not really certain.