Everyone's head is full of Trump and Biden because that's what's in the news. But we don't even know who will be running, in either primary! (Look at history, we never know that this early in the cycle).
On the R side: once DeSantis announces he will run, that will break the ice for it to be "okay" for R's to run against Trump. Then the flood gates will open and a dozen rando candidates will appear out of nowhere. ~75% that one of them will be the nominee, not Trump or DeSantis.
It would hardly be a miracle. Though it's not even clear Biden will be the nominee. Trump would probably need a miracle.
@JiSK You think? He seems highly probable to announce for candidacy, and he's still got a massive following with the base. Any republican who manages to seriously challenge him in the primary can expect significant negative consequences to their political career if they fail to do so successfully, which is the most likely outcome still.
So, given he's quite likely to win the nomination, the incumbent he's most likely to face is historically unpopular (even more than he was). He is definitely more than 33% likely to win that contest (the replacement ballot isn't far from 50/50 on that one right now iirc). So the current probability translates to believing that he's only a 2:1 bet for the nomination.
Honestly, I guess that seems roughly accurate, though I'd probably bet a bit higher on his taking the nomination (maybe as high as 3:1?).
And I think Biden looks mostly the same. The most likely option seems to be they face each other - I'm not sure if the outside view there is the replacement ballot or the fact that Trump lost the last one. Probably the replacement ballot, though.
But I actually think both of them are probably a bit less electable than replacement - I would definitely put more money down on NO after the primaries to bet against the survivor if only one of them secures their nomination.
@EnopoletusHarding With Trump as opposing candidate dead cat would have a decent chance.
Even worse candidates, like Biden, have a real chance.
And that is on assumption that it will be Biden vs Trump what is not really certain.
