Will Clarence Thomas rule with the Majority when ruling on whether to overturn the Colorado SC 14th Amendment ruling ?

Question

This is my second in the Clarence Thomas, Donald Trump, SCOTUS Trifecta Nexus :) I had only initially planned to do one, but this is fun -- so I will create more markets.

The question is will Clarence Thomas be in the majority of the ruling or not.

RESOLVE YES -- If his opinion is in the majority column.

RESOLVE NO -- If he is in the minority opinion.

Supreme Court justices can issue different opinions even when they are ruling the same way. Even if Clarence Thomas has a different reasoning than others, but rules with the majority, this resolves to yes.

Recusal will result in an N/A. SCOTUS not granting certiorari and therefore not hearing the case will also result in N/A. If this case is resolved by SCOTUS in any way that we will not know the votes of the Justices, it will result in N/A as well.

Also, I am not saying which way the SCOTUS majority will rule. The main question is will Clarence Thomas be in the majority -- either for Trump or against Trump.

Resolved after the supreme court issues its decision in this matter.

To maintain the predictive nature of this market, I intend to close this market for all new Trading approximately one week after the SCOTUS finishes hearing the arguments for this case. So please feel to trade based on the proceedings in the front of the SCOTUS during the hearing. But I don't want this market to latch to 0.1% or 99.99% by letting trading go on till the ruling is made public.

I believe the hearing date is 8th Feb. Closing on 17th slightly more than a week; as promised when market was launched.  Hope that give enough time to mull over the proceedings. CT usually stays mum, but has been know to break the rule.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Mar 4, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.