If Trump is elected President in 2024, will he have won the popular vote?
41
closes 2025
20%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question resolves to "YES" if Donald Trump is elected president of the United States in 2024, and has won the popular vote.
This question resolves to "NO" if Donald Trump is elected president of the United States in 2024, and has not won the popular vote.
This question resolves to "INVALID" if Donald Trump is not elected president of the United States in 2024.
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I can hardly see him performing better than in 2016 (against the deeply unpopular Clinton, and before 1/6). I think he's likely to win the electoral college but lose the popular vote.
OP, if Trump does not end up as the candidate of any major party in 2024 do you plan to go ahead and resolve this N/A, or are you waiting til the end of the election regardless?
No Republican since I was born has won the popular vote without being the incumbent. I doubt it will happen.
@LivInTheLookingGlass we also haven't had significant inflation or a land war in Europe since you were born. Past performance is not indicative of future results. xD
@LivInTheLookingGlass fair - I think the question is more what one's priors should be given any specific piece of evidence.
Re: inflation for example, I think a lot of people assumed that since it hadn't happened in a very long time, it was less likely to happen soon - when in reality, the correct prior was probably something closer to "economies are cyclical so we're about due" or (probably more correct) "negative economic events are inherently stochastic so it's more like a poisson process".
A lot of stuff in the economic field is kinda like that tbh. Take stocks, for example. If there was a good reason for an informed person to expect the stock price tomorrow was going to be higher, the market (aka aggregate of all people with opinions about the stock price) would drive it higher today. Thus, the day to day fluctuation of stocks is (from our perspective) about the closest you can get to a random process. What the price has been doing over the past few days really shouldn't affect your opinion about what it'll do tomorrow much if at all.
Now.... is the question of GOP presidential candidates winning the popular vote in this category? Maybe, maybe not. I'd argue it is closer to being in that category than you think it is, probably.
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11 YES payouts
Ṁ230
Ṁ227
Ṁ118
Ṁ112
Ṁ87
Ṁ78
Ṁ24
21 NO payouts
Ṁ394
Ṁ204
Ṁ129
Ṁ116
Ṁ98
Ṁ77
Ṁ55
Ṁ42
Ṁ41
Ṁ35
Ṁ28
Ṁ25
Ṁ17
Ṁ14
Ṁ4
