Eigenspace's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -2.01
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Eigenspace bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
10%
20%
30%
- Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' gross more domestically than any other movie released in 2023?NOṀ300
- Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' gross more domestically than any other movie released in 2023?NOṀ200
- Will 'The Super Mario Bros. Movie' gross more domestically than any other movie released in 2023?NOṀ100
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
- 🇯🇲 vs. 🕸️: Will Bob Marley: One Love (2024) have a better opening weekend than Madame Web (2024)?YESṀ200
- Will Oppenheimer and Barbie perform historically well at the domestic box office on opening weekend?YESṀ200
- Will Oppenheimer gross more than $800 million within the first six months of its release?YESṀ200
90%
- Jonathan Majors who plays MCU's Kang was arrested for assaulting a woman. Will Marvel or Disney cut ties?YESṀ1,000
- Will Oppenheimer gross more than $800 million within the first six months of its release?YESṀ1,000
- Will Oppenheimer gross more than $800 million within the first six months of its release?YESṀ700
95%
97%