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MANIFOLD
Will Five Nights at Freddy's gross >$60M on opening weekend?
104
Ṁ1.2kṀ68k
resolved Oct 30
Resolved
YES

This is a market on how much 'Five Nights at Freddy's' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl764248833/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 27 - October 29) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if ‘Five Nights at Freddy's' (2023) grosses more than $60,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is no final data available by November 6, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.


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@dittopoop Doesn't this count the $10.3M of Thursday night?

@Vg1131 from desc

Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews)

predictedYES

@dittopoop hmm I was a bit aggressive based on this headline. it's not guaranteed yet! 39M, incl Thurs, with heavily frontloaded pre-sales. Has to catch a bit north of 20M on Saturday and Sunday. Likely, but not for sure!

I haven’t seen a single estimate above $50 million, and it’s going to streaming simultaneously. Not sure what’s justifying the increased probability here.

predictedYES

Btw guys this exact market is trading at 93% on Polymarket

https://polymarket.com/event/five-nights-at-freddys-opening-weekend

If your comp is Detective Pikachu this gets a $54m opening, if it’s Sonic the Hedgehog it gets a $58m opening, if it’s Oppenheimer it gets a $82m opening.

Today I saw you can stream it on Paramount Plus

predictedNO

@Domer well done, please take good care of my mana.

predictedYES

Guys, it's domestically on opening weekend

If it opens to $35m this weekend, I think $60m is practically guaranteed

predictedNO

@Domer the question is about the performance on the opening weekend, so if it gets 30m this weekend then that's it? It would resolve no.

predictedNO

@MarcusAbramovitch did you confuse total projection (60-90) with opening weekend projection (33-42) when you made this question?