Will Taylor Swift’s ERAS Tour Movie make over 100 million at the US box office its opening weekend?
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resolved Oct 16
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NO

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bought Ṁ100 of YES

Didn't it already sell 100M in presell?

sold Ṁ55 of YES

@Shrewdan Globally yes, but this is US-only!

predicted YES

@Panfilo oops lol

bought Ṁ10 of YES

The big pop star is expected to become the new big movie star.
In order to predict the US box office sales we need to find a similar story from before.
In 2009, Michael Jackson’s "This Is It" movie documentary was released. The movie reached $23M in the opening weekend. Calculated with inflation that is roughly about $40M in 2023.
But we need to take the popularity of two singers into account too. We can estimate the popularity of someone by the amount of web search they've had in google.
According to this timeline, the web search of Taylor Swift throughout all these years, even in 2009, is way more than Micheal Jackson. Meaning that more people are expected to go and watch the movie.

predicted YES

@dorinmosalman This chart is probably skewed by the typo in MichAEl.

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